NFL Draft: Talent Available At Every Spot

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Now that the first couple of weeks of free agency have passed and the collegiate pro days have begun, much attention has turned to the NFL Draft. The New York Jets, armed with 12 selections, are one of the teams to watch. Last year, the Jets were able to walk out with the Defensive Rookie of The Year, a cornerback that finished the season winning rookie of the month honors, a potential franchise quarterback, and an improving left guard.

This year, while Idzik has opted to not spend the Jets’ ample cap space on veterans or quick fixes, the Jets still have some holes as we gear up towards draft season. Idzik’s preferred approach has been to build through the draft and use free agency to supplement what you already have in place. He did use free agency to attack some holes. They replaced Austin Howard with a new right tackle, so there’s no hole there anymore. Willie Colon was resigned, so 4/5ths of the offensive line from last year returns intact.

The Jets upgraded wide receiver by adding Eric Decker. They, also, brought in competition for Geno Smith by signing the best free agent quarterback available in Michael Vick. Idzik also, resigned some of the Jets’ own free agents. With trade rumors swirling regarding Pro Bowl WR DeSean Jackson, the Jets could conceivably end up with less draft picks than the 12 they have now. Assuming they don’t trade for Jackson, they enter the draft with the 18th, 49th, 80th, 104th, 115th, 137th, 154th, 195th, 209th, 210th, 213th, and 233rd selections. Compensatory picks are ineligible to be traded, but the Jets can still use their other 8 selections to move up or down as they see fit.

Some have argued that you can’t get starting caliber talent in the later rounds. Considering the Jets need a starting CB and a TE, they don’t have as many holes as some would say. Barring no additions, Jeremy Kerley would start opposite Eric Decker (and yes, he can be more than a “slot” receiver). Calvin Pace would start at OLB, with Darrin Walls starting opposite Dee Milliner. I, for one, am very high on Walls but believe the Jets draft a cornerback as is. In any event, let’s take a look at a breakdown of the last 13 drafts to see just how many Pro Bowlers have been found during rounds three through seven.

First Round: 164
Second Round: 66
Third Round: 33
Notable 3rd Round Pro Bowlers: Frank Gore, Justin Tuck, Evan Mathis, Jamaal Charles, Mike Wallace, Navarro Bowman, Jimmy Graham, Justin Houston, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles
Fourth Round: 30
Notable 4th Round Pro Bowlers: Jared Allen, Shaun Phillips, Owen Daniels, Elvis Dumervil, Stephen Gostkowski, Dashon Goldson, Geno Atkins, Jordan Cameron, Julius Thomas,
Fifth Round: 22
Notable 5th Round Pro Bowlers: Michael Turner, Trent Cole, Kam Chancellor, Richard Sherman
Sixth Round: 19
Notable 6th Round Pro Bowlers: Tom Brady, Andy Lee, Derek Anderson, Antoine Bethea, Nick Folk, Greg Hardy, Antonio Brown, Alfred Morris
Seventh Round: 9
Notable 7th Round Pro Bowlers: TJ Houshmanzadeh, Scott Wells, Matt Cassel, Cortland Finnegan

Analysis: The 2004 draft produced more Pro Bowlers in rounds 4, 5, and 6 than in the second and third combined. The 2005 draft’s third round produced more pro bowlers than the second round, and the fourth round produced as many as the second. The 2006 and 2007 drafts produced more pro bowlers in the 4th round than the third round, and almost as many as the second rounds. In the 2008 draft, the fifth round produced more pro bowlers (3) than the third and fourth rounds combined.

The 2009 draft was the first time that more pro bowlers were taken in the second through sixth rounds combined than the entire first round. The same number of pro bowlers was taken in the 6th and third round in the 2010 draft. In 2011, two pro bowlers each were selected in the second through fourth rounds. More pro bowlers were taken in the 6th round than third-fifth rounds combined in the 2012 draft. Over the last 14 drafts, the fourth round (where the Jets hold multiple picks) has produced almost as many pro bowlers as the third round. The sixth round (where, again, the Jets hold multiple picks) has produced almost as many pro bowlers as the 5th round as well.

Now, lets’ take a look at the players taken over the last 14 drafts at every spot the Jets are picking at this year. I consider a pick a “successful” pick if the player becomes a contributor for their team. A star next to a player’s name donates that the player was actually selected by the Jets; I included this so you guys can have a history of the Jets’ success picking in these slots.

18th: *Chad Pennington, Jeff Backus, TJ Duckett, Calvin Pace, Will Smith, Erasmus James, Bobby Carpenter, Leon Hall, Joe Flacco, Robert Ayers, Maurkice Pouncey, Corey Liuget, Melvin Ingram, Eric Reid
Success Rate: 12/14
Analysis: A very productive spot to be picking at as everyone taken in this spot flashed at one point or another, with the exception of Erasmus James. Flacco won SB MVP, while Pouncey’s now a Pro Bowler and Eric Reid flashed as a rookie last year. The one that will stick out for Jets fans is Chad Pennington, who orchestrated the 41-0 drubbing of the Colts in the playoffs and was one of the more accurate passers in NFL history.

49th: Johnathan Hankins, Kendall Reyes, Ben Ijalana, Taylor Mays, Max Unger, Desean Jackson, Kenny Irons, *Kellen Clemens, Marcus Johnson, Keiwan Ratliff, Eddie Moore, Levar Fisher, *Lamont Jordan, Dwayne Goodrich
Success Rate: 3/14
Analysis: DeSean Jackson and Max Unger are both Pro Bowlers. Lamont Jordan was Shonn Greene before Shonn Greene, and rushed for over 1000 yards as the Raiders’ feature back in 2005.

80th: Darrell Jackson, Kevan Barlow, Will Overstreet, Courtney Van Buren, Caleb Miller, Dustin Fox, Clint Ingram, Paul Williams, Bryan Smith, Kevin Barnes, J.D. Walton, Chris Culliver, Jamell Fleming, J.J. Wilcox
Success Rate: 3/14
Analysis: Will Overstreet had a good career at outside linebacker. Jackson and Barlow had a few productive seasons. Everyone else on this list hasn’t done much of anything.

104th: Jelani Jenkins, Joe Adams, Luke Stocker, Alterraun Verner, Kaluka Maiava, Beau Bell, Jay Moore, Cory Rodgers, Travis Daniels, Isaac Sopoaga, George Wrightster, Alex Brown, Orlando Huff, Kaulana Noa
Success Rate: 2/14
Analysis: Verner is a top 5 cornerback in the league, and led the league with 23 passes defended last year. Alex Brown provided depth and finished his career with 45.5 sacks and 5 interceptions.

115th: Frank Moreau, Moran Norris, Tony Beckham, Lee Suggs, Nat Dorsey, Marviel Underwood, Will Blackmon, Leroy Harris, Dre Moore, Stanley Arnoux, Phillip Dillard, Kendall Hunter, Coty Sensabaugh, Landry Jones
Success Rate: 2/14
Analysis: Kendall Hunter and Will Blackmon are quality backups and special teamers. Hunter has started to see more carries as Frank Gore’s primary backup.

137th: Jesse Williams, Malik Jackson, Buster Skrine, Perrish Cox, Jason Phillips, John David Booty, La’Ron McClain, Terna Nande, Ronald Fields, Josh Scobee, Terrence Holt, Randy Fasani, Matt Lehr, Clark Haagans
Success Rate: 4/14
Analysis: Perrish Cox has been a solid cornerback and special teams player. La’Ron McClain and Josh Scobee are two of the better player sat their positions. Clark Haagans was one of the better run stopping outside linebackers in the league for a handful of years.

154th: Muneer Moore, Darnerian McCants, *Jonathan Goodwin, Donnie Nickey, Michael Turner, Robert McCune, Marcus Maxey, Clifton Ryan, Kroy Biermann, Marcus Freeman, Andrew Quarless, Richard Sherman, Korey Toomer, Chris Thompson
Success Rate: 5/14
Analysis: Jonathan Goodwin made the Pro Bowl in 2009, and has started 93 consecutive games at center. Michael Turner went from Ladainian Tomlinson’s backup to a feature running back in Atlanta, and has rushed for over 7,000 yards and over 60 TDs in his career. Kroy Biermann has become a good backup defensive lineman. Andrew Quarless replaced Jermichael Finlay and had 32 catches for 312 yards. Richard Sherman is arguably the best cornerback in football today.

195th: Alan Bonner, Nick Mondek, JT Thomas, Antonio Brown, James Davis, Donald Thomas, Deon Anderson, JD Runnels, Craig Bragg, Jeris McIntyre, Antonio Garay, Lamont Brightful, Dan O’Leary, Michael Hawthorne
Success Rate: 2/14
Analysis: Antonio Brown is the lone Pro Bowler from this spot, although Michael Hawthorne had himself a good career in New Orleans. Brown has become an elite wide receiver, despite being selected so late.

209th: Eric Chandler, Alex Lincoln, Chad Williams, Tim Provost, Shane Olivea, Rob Pettiti, Ethan Kilmer, Corey Hilliard, Matt Flynn, Bernard Scott, Levi Brown, Johnny Culbreath, Aaron Brown, Brice Butler
Success Rate: 2/14
Analysis: Matt Flynn won a few games for the Packers season last year, as he was able to keep the team afloat until Aaron Rodgers returned, and has now proven himself an adequate backup QB. Bernard Scott is a quality backup running back.

210th: Demetrius McCray, Audie Cole, Andrew Jackson, Cody Grimm, Vance Walker, Brian Johnston, Jordan Kent, Zach Strief, Reggie Hodges, Raheem Orr, Tony Gilbert, Bryan Fletcher, Harold Blackmon, Brad St. Louis
Success Rate: 1/14
Analysis: Zach Strief saves this spot from a complete hog wash.

213th: Mike Green, Anthony Denman, Pete Campion, Yeremiah Bell, *Darrell McClover, Derek Anderson, James Wyche, Chase Pittman, Chauncey Washington, Paul Fanaika, Willie Young, Brandyn Thompson, Richard Crawford, Michael Mauti
Success Rate: 2/14
Analysis: Derek Anderson once threw for over 3700 yards and made the Pro Bowl as he led the Browns to their only winning season in the last decade. Former Jet Yeremiah Bell has carved out a nice career for himself, as he’s entering his 10th year in the league.

233rd: David Bass, Drake Dunsmore, Lawrence Guy, Jim Dray, Sammie Stroughter, Justin Forsett, Chandler Williams, Devin Aromashodu, Jonathan Fanene, Christian Morton, Chance Pearce, Tim Wansley, Marlon McCree, Drew Haddad
Success Rate: 3/14
Analysis: Forsett, Aromashody, and McCree are the only contributors to come out of this spot. McCree was the best one, as he played 8 years and notched 16 career interceptions.

Conclusion:
The Jets will have an opportunity to add quality throughout this year’s draft, regardless of the spot they’re picking. They have the opportunity to add impact players early and, as I hope this provided evidence of, there’s no rule that says you can’t get impact players late. This is how you build a sustainable winner, and it’s time for Idzik and his scouts to earn their money by assembling the best possible collection of talent they can. The draft has been used by perennial contenders like the Ravens and the Steelers to circumvent the salary cap, if you will, by adding low cost talent that they can then resign, or trade, later. The Jets seemingly have adopted the same motto. Welcome to the adult table Gang Green.

53 thoughts on “NFL Draft: Talent Available At Every Spot

  1. It is not a splash, but the only way to win long term. Denver and Pats are mortgaging the future as they have win now or never QB’s.

    Building but putting a team that can win on the field. Love it!

  2. @David, the Pats and Denver have NOT mortgaged their future. Revis could be let go after this year and the Pats save 20 million; Talib could be let go after this year with a cap savings. If you structure contracts the right way, you could sign a bunch of top FA’s and be in decent shape after 2 years. But that would involve Idzik actually signing someone!

    From what I saw in this article, outside of the 18th overall pick in round 1, the rest are more misses than hits!!

  3. David. Be careful. A couple of pit bulls who are always negative will attack you!

    Look at this quote:

    John is approaching it very much like we did in Tampa. You’re not using free agency to build your team. You’re using it to fill in. You want to build for the long haul and take in the short run just little steps that are going to help you. I think John has a great plan I’m looking forward to seeing it unfold with the Jets. I hope people don’t become impatient because I really do believe building through the draft in the long run is the way to go.”

    - Tony Dungy on John Idzik’s plan

    Interesting factoid. Idzik has been with both the Bucs and the Seahawks and both organizations have won the Super Bowl by following the plan that Tony is speaking of!

    Remember the idiot Cimini saying that Idzik was just a salary cap guy! Idzik does have a football background. He played receiver at Dartmouth, coached briefly in the college ranks, worked as a pro personnel assistant for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers before moving into the salary-cap realm as the Seahawks vice president of football administration.

    Remember when he took over the Jets were projected to be more than $19 million above the salary cap. They had no viable starting quarterback. Their head coach, Rex Ryan, was supposed to be a lame duck. I think anyone who is objective would say he had a pretty good first year. Let’s hope his second one is just as good and we make the playoffs this time.

  4. Oh yea I forgot to mention that both the Bucs and Seahawks won the Super Bowl without so called elite QBs!

  5. The Jets do not need to get Pro Bowl talent with every pick. You are not saying they do, but talking about the Pro Bowlers that were drafted late raises insurmountable expectations. Just look at what talking about spending in free agency has caused these past two weeks.

    First off, every player drafted needs to develop to reach his full potential. Players drafted early just need less time or less things to improve on (situational players are also drafted in the later rounds, so some later round players just have lower ceilings, too). The Pro Bowlers drafted late may not contribute much in their first few years. The earlier a player is drafted, the more chances he gets to succeed and the sooner he is asked to contribute. So we could draft some good players after the fourth round and we might not know initially. From last year, Aboushi and Campbell could both have been nice pickups, but we just do not know; there has been no chance to see them in the chaos of real game action.

    Second, we do not need each pick to develop into a Pro Bowler. You kind of hinted at this when you considered all “successful” players drafted with each pick, but this needs to be explicit. Much like in free agency, it does not matter if you hit a home run, just hit as much as possible. We could use a lot of players at a lot of positions, both starters, situational players, and depth players. We need to reduce the number of draft picks that never make the team.

    I am interested to see what approach John Idzik takes this year. Last year, he went with the BPA for the first two-three rounds (which means ignoring the size of the need with each pick, for when JX comes along) and then focused on the offensive line/run game. While Aboushi might have been the BPA, Campbell, a defensive tackle converting to guard, might have fallen out of the draft, as might have Bohanon. Blockers need time to learn to work together and master the complicated number of schemes, concepts, and situations, so it was smart to get them all together and at the same time. This year, I expect a similar plan: BPA in the first few rounds and then a switch to develop an entire unit (or two units – we have the picks for it) by itself. Then again, there might not be another area like the o-line left.

  6. Kash. Idzik has been very clear about his draft strategy, namely, BPA. That got us Richardson last year. Don’t be surprised if the first few picks are surprises since he’ll go by his board and ignore need. This has been a proven strategy over the years and I’m thankful that we finally have a GM that will not reach for need or reach for a player just to appease the fan base or coach. This of course does NOT guarantee success but it does make it more likely in the long run.

  7. Thanks for reading guys.

    I think Idzik’s gonna go BPA, but we only have one draft for reference. It’ll be interesting to see. My point for highlighting Pro Bowlers is to show that you can hit home runs in the later rounds. However, yes, you can still have success in the later rounds without hitting home runs. Just went with Pro Bowlers, also, because that’s easier for recognition for some.

  8. @Frank

    Like I said, the first three picks – Milliner, Richardson, and Geno – were BPA without a doubt. Our needs at the time were outside linebacker, safety, wide receiver, and tight end, as the players we had at those positions were horrendous: Barnes and Pace, who was resigned days earlier for the minimum; Landry, who was signed weeks earlier, and, as some website said, “someone named” Josh Bush; Santonio Holmes coming off a serious injury he might never recover from, Stephen Hill coming off injury and an uninspiring rookie season, and Kerley; and Cumberland and Reuland. We picked Milliner when Wilson could have started outside Cromartie for a decent pair of starting corners, or Walls or Berry could have beat Wilson out for the spot. We picked Richardson when everyone thought we already had Coples at DE and then started to wonder how we would use Richardson, who was billed as a fit only as a 4-3 DT. We picked Geno when it was clear he had nobody to throw to and could not possibly have more success that year than Sanchez because of it.

    Winters was picked next; he was talented and could be considered the BPA, but would need to beat out Colon or Peterman to start at guard. In the fifth round, we picked Aboushi. You could argue he was a third-round talent that slipped.

    But Campbell is weird. Defensive tackles converting to guard are normally not drafted. Only two teams – the Jets and the Chargers – were interested in him as a guard and almost nobody wanted him as a defensive tackle. He was uninspiring in college on defense and his offensive acumen was only in the eyes of his coach.

    I do not believe Campbell was a BPA and I doubt Aboushi and maybe even Winters were BPA. The 2013 draft was very deep in offensive linemen, and I think Idzik loaded up to raise them all as a group. I expect Idzik to do something similar with all the late-round picks he will have. Maybe he goes after receivers or maybe linebackers (the draft is deep at both positions) but Idzik does not stick with BPA for the entire draft.

    Of course, that does not explain why we drafted Bohanon and took the risk of Freeman going somewhere else as an UDFA. Then again, Bohanon started the entire year at fullback and Freeman was on the practice squad.

  9. @Kash,

    You may have a point here about the plan at O-line. I had never thought of it like that, but it seems to make sense. I am intrigued by Dalton Freeman, he seemed to have a good rep in training camp before getting injured. I wonder if he will beat out Schlauderaff for the backup C job this year and potentially take over from Mangold next year or the year after, as his contract becomes cuttable / tradeable.

    In terms of positions that could be developmental ‘blocks’, WR could be one, as could TE (Gilmore, Lyerla are two late rounders that could be good) and S or CB (Pierre Desir, Purefoy potential mid round options).

    one things is for sure, Day 3 of the draft could be interesting….

  10. 12 picks is a wonderful thing. I have a concern that the Jets may reach a little to cover the Cornerback hole, and a bigger concern that they use a premium pick on a offensive guard. I do not see a lot of depth in this draft at guard, therefore, I can see the Jets going for Zack Martin in the first, or Yankey with his horrific combine in the second. This team needs playmakers .
    Consider three picks in the fourth round:
    Guys that may be available.
    RB Kadeem Carey, RB Charles Sims, CB Loucheiz Purifoy, WR Donte Moncrief, Safety Ahmad Dixon, RB Dri Archer, OLB Jackson Jeffcoat, TE CJ Fiedorowicz,OG Billy Turner, OT Seantrel Henderson, CB Victor Hampton, ILB Yawin Smallwood…..

    Then of course you have the incredible Sixth round :
    Possible guys available.
    Crockett Gilmore TE, De Anthony Thomas RB, QB Brett Smith, TE Richard Rogers, WR Josh Huff, DE Tailor Hart, ILB Andrew Jackson, WR Cody Hoffman, FB Jay Prosch, TE AC Leonard…

  11. Can we please stop with the BPA discussion. This team needs a FS, CB, WR, TE, OLB and ILB. The only position, on this team, where it would clearly be BPA, would be if the team picked a defensive lineman. At just about any other position, you could suggest the pick was ‘need’ and/or ‘BPA’.

    I also think referring to Richardson, as BPA, is flawed. Think back, who did the NYJ have on their DLine last year, at this time: Wilkerson (budding star), Ellis (going into his 3rd year and had shown a little, but nothing to count on), D Harrison (an UFA), Coples (who they were moving to OLB) and a few also rans. They had lost Devito and Pouha (who had been solid stalwarts before). The questions were more about Richardson being a fit as a 3/4, DE, ‘do they need’ another DL.

    Dalbin, I appreciate the effort you put into this piece, it must have taken a lot of time. I think what gets lost is just how subjective picking players is. I mean Josh McDaniels drafted Tim Tebow in round 1. If the NYJ strictly went BPA, how could anyone, who watches any film, justify Brian Winters over guys like Keenan Allen, Jordan Reed or Terron Armstead (to name a few). My point is this term ‘BPA’ is overused. Richardson worked out, so he’s BPA? I makes no sense to me. Are you telling me, if everytime the NYJ pick, the top guy on their board is a DLman, they’ll pick 12 DLineman?

  12. Kash..he drafted Bohanon because he went to Wake Forest, with his son.

    I see your points on ‘need vs BPA’, but I could argue, that putting Wilson on the outside was a bad move, so they ‘needed’ a man to man CB. I simply think this idea of ‘BPA v need’ gets way too overblown. In the draft guys slip for various reasons and teams reach for various reasons. Why the NYJ rank Brian Winters higher than Keenan Allen is something none of us can comment on. Let’s just hope we get the ‘best players available, for the team’s biggest needs’.

  13. BPA strategy will work in our favor because the draft is deep with offense. Even if you don’t like the BPA strat and would rather focus on need, I’m predicting the results are still going to be fall favorable in line with what our needs presently are. have some faith people… we’ve held out hope in much bleaker situations over the years. We will be walking away from the 2014 draft in a far better position than we entered. After that we will see a key FA movement or two and a few bargain grabs.

  14. I actually really liked Freeman and think he has a future with the team. I think Mike did a breakdown of him; kid has ALOT of potential.

    I do agree that sometimes BPA meets need, and that’s usually in a perfect world. I think the Jets did go BPA with the Richardson pick because they had Mo, Harrison, Ellis, and Coples on the defensive line. I do agree that “best player available” is so subjective because the best player to me may not be the best player to you.

    If the Jets walk out of the 4th round with Dri, CJ, and Loucheiz i’d consider that a phenomenal haul.

  15. @Dalbin
    12 picks allows you to double dip, obviously at Cornerback, but maybe at Tight End taking your receiving TE Amaro in the second round and CJ as your blocking TE in the fourth round

  16. I think KAsh is correct about Idzik targeting O-Line/blockers either starting with or after the Winters pick.

    I wonder if he targets players that can also play special teams this year. This team needs serious help at both KR & PR, & adding 1 or more players who excel at coverage certainly wouldn’t hurt.

  17. Lidman- the BPA talk does get a bit confusing. What we dont know is how the Jets put together their draft board. They might do a cut off point based on filling a need. They might not even have any DL on their draft board or have all the DL ranked between 5th-7th round value.

  18. I think Idzik aimed for depth in the later rounds, for sure. Theoretically, the offensive line (if they’re developed correctly) should have some pieces backing up the graybeards.

    They can double dip, for sure: I wouldn’t rule them out taking two WRs or 2 CBs or even 2 TEs. They can do that with all the picks they have.

    It would surprise me if the JEts have a defensive lineman on their draft board, but this team has surprised me before lol i’ll admit that the Richardson pick shocked me because I thought for sure they’d go offense. It should be an interesting draft come May guys.

  19. LeeBur..exactly..you can opine how Milliner was a need pick, or a BPA pick. I guess if there is a consensus on a team’s biggest need being ‘position x’, and they don’t pick that 1 position, they went with BPA. In the NYJ case, last year and this year, there are so many needs, that unless you know how their ‘board’ is set up, it’s kind of silly to say ‘oh, that’s definitely a BPA pick’, unless it’s obvious (like taking Nix/Jernigan in round 1).

  20. Dalbin..when you look at their DL, who is it: Wilkerson, Richardson, Harrison, Ellis, Douzable. After 2014, Wilkerson will be getting a raise (either by extension or 5th yr option), Douzable, Harrison and Ellis will be FA, leaving only Richardson as a constant, to their cap. I think NYG and Seattle have shown the need for a group of DL, that can be rotated, so I would fully expect the NYJ to take at least 1 DL. Do they take him early? Probably not, but can’t see them ignoring the position totally. Will Sutton/ASU is slipping..has a lot of the same qualities as Richardson does. I’m not saying he’s as good, but similar traits.

  21. I actually like Sutton and think he’d be a good late round pick. I didn’t mean ignore the position entirely; my bad if that wasn’t clear. I meant taking another DL early, similar to taking Richardson last year. They have enough picks where they can add quality depth pieces in the later rounds, similar to the Giants and Seahawks, as you mentioned. Good pints Lidman.

    John, good to see you back. I do think the Jets are only missing two starters. Can they upgrade certain positions? Sure, which is what I think they will try to do, but I don’t think it’s wrong to assume that the team only has two holes. Thanks for saying i’m unable to think; that might be the best compliment i’ve heard today. I appreciate you taking the time to reply.

  22. Interesting data pull Dalbin, thanks. While “Pro Bowl” is just one metric, better than nothing. Also means that Day 3 draft picks have roughly the same odds of getting a Pro Bowler regardless the round. 8% success rate in Rd 3 versus 5% in round 6. Statistically, there’s almost no difference.

    What a freaking crapshoot this all is…

    Success Rate by Round
    First Round: 39% (164 PBs/416 Picks)
    Second Round: 16%
    Third Round: 8%
    Fourth Round: 7%
    Fifth Round: 5%
    Sixth Round: 5%
    Seventh Round: 2%

  23. Also, rate drops by more than half from the First Rd to the Second, drops by half again from the Second to the Third, and then stagnant from that point forward.

  24. What that tells me is when you miss in the 1st and 2nd rounds, it’s very costly. Can you say Vlad Ducasse!!!

  25. I also think it highlights, how Seattle’s late round picking, has really been the key to their success, because if you go back and look at their recent 1st and 2nd rounders, you won’t find the % of Pro Bowlers, keeps pace with the rest of the league.

  26. I really hope the Jets take a WR in round 1 like Lee or Beckham and then take Aaron Colvin in a middle round with all their extra picks. They can survive at corner until Colvin is back from injury. Can also use a pick on Jean Baptiste or someone like that in round 3 or 4. Having all those extra picks means you can use one on a guy like Colvin who would be a first round pick and arguably the best coorner in the draft if not hurt.

  27. For all readers/TOJ staff………

    Who is “your guy” that you want at 18? i know guys can fall, but who is a realistic player you see being their at 18 that you want?

    Just wondering if there is a fairly consensus guy or 2 that we would all be pleased with.

    OBJ for me, quick and catches everything. Plus can play special teams.

  28. I think when you look at the Jets right now, you have to think “what positions DON’T require us to use a 1st round pick on that particular position?” I would dare say that outside of defensive line, left tackle, center, kicker, and punter, every other position is fair game for a 1st round draft choice.

    The only problem I have with the Jets strategy this year, and I know it is only my opinion, is that I shouldn’t be talking about another DEFENSIVE player in round 1 of the NFL Draft. The first two rounds, at minimum, in this draft should be offense, offense.

  29. @LeeBur

    I would love it if we traded down a few spots, to get more picks and better value at the bottom of the first round, but if we stay put, I think Lee is in a class of his own at receiver. Lee is about equal with Evans, but Evans will probably not make it to us. But I also think that this must be the year we find a long-term replacement for Pace and since smart, instinctual linebackers with a built-in understanding of the game are rare, we have to pray that either Khalil Mack falls to us or that we are able to pick up Van Noy with one of our picks in the first two rounds.

  30. BPA is clearly the superior method in the early rounds. A sure way to failure is to reach for an offensive player when a defensive player is clearly superior. Also, needs do change quickly in the NFL, ie, injuries, drop in play, etc. The teams that have been successful in the past have picked the best player regardless of position. Of course if 2 players are really close in talent then by all means pick the one that fills the need the best. Hopefully this draft will allow us to pick the BPA which also fills one of our many needs.

  31. If Khalil Mack somehow slips out of the top ten picks, I would love for the Jets to trade up to get him. He would be worth it, in my humble opinion.

  32. Frank..

    Again, though it’s all so very subjective. Tell me Seattle’s last 5 first round draft picks:
    2013-Percy Harvin trade
    2012-Bruce Irvin
    2011-James Carpenter
    2010-Earl Thomas and Russell Okung

    Thomas is an absolute stud and the rest of these guys are average players. So, if Seattle, Scheneider/Idzik were drafting BPA, we can’t really say they did ‘a good job’ in the first round where the majority of impact players come from.

    This is an anti-Idzik rant. More, I’m just trying to illustrate that BPA is, in my opinion, such an overused term because of how subjective this process is.

  33. To finish the thought, if a DL, or QB, is the BPA, on their board, when they pick, it puts a lot more pressure on them to be correct, if they are going to strictly draft by that approach.

    While I certainly have opinions on who I’d like to see them draft, I simply hope they get a solid ‘hit ratio’ on the players, no matter what their positions are.

  34. Lidman. For the 100th time stop confusing results with strategy. Just because you have the correct strategy does not guarantee success. The draft can be a crap shoot at times, however the successful teams stick with their strategy since they know it will work in the long run.

    Here’s an example from the investing world. Warren Buffett states the following:

    “My advice to the trustee couldn’t be more simple: Put 10% of the cash in short-term government bonds and 90% in a very low-cost S & P 500 index fund. (I suggest Vanguard’s.) I believe the trust’s long-term results from this policy will be superior to those attained by most investors — whether pension funds, institutions or individuals — who employ high-fee managers.”

    This is clearly the best strategy for the average investor who unlike Buffett doesn’t get to sit at the table with the executives of the companies he buys as they open the books wide for his eyes only. Despite this fact investors still gamble their money away by buying individual stocks and day trading. Can you get lucky doing that sure but the way Buffett recommends virtually ensures success over the long term. That’s the rub, are investors or GMs patient enough to do the right thing or will they panic and do day trading or go wild in free agency.

  35. Frank..

    Stop talking about the investing world. Warren Buffet has ‘staying power’ that the
    ‘Average Joe’ doesn’t. So, while Mr Buffet can sustain his ‘long term, buy and hold’ strategy, you might not be able to because you simply can’t afford the principle loss, while he dollar cost averages in. Sure, if you’re born wealthy, and put your money into the S&P 500 index, and forget about it, you’ll likely make money on that, but 99.99% of the people in the world can’t do that. Now, if I apply this to the NFL, then the idea is if I have a GMs job, for 20+ yrs, and adhere to the strategy then I’ll be fine. Here’s the rub, you don’t get more than 5yrs, if you’re lucky, in 80+% of these jobs. If you continually miss on your draft picks, especially in round 1, you won’t be able to ‘buy and hold’ and rely on your long term strategy to work.

    The point I was making is ‘BPA’ is an overused term, because of it’s subjectivty. For instance, Bruce Irvin was not the BPA, at 15, in 2012, but he was on Seattle’s board (if you believe they simply go BPA strategy). This holds true for all teams because no matter what team picks where, in each round, you could argue the player they picked is the ‘BPA’, simply based of the fact that they picked him. I’ve yet to ever hear a front office guy come in and say: “At 14, we thought ‘so and so’ was the best player, but we took this other guy instead”.

    I’m not confusing results with strategy. If you have the best strategy in the world, but don’t execute, it’s not worth a dime.

  36. Pingback: Today’s Jets Twit Directory Links March 27, 2014 | New York Jets Online Directory

  37. LeeBur,

    Depending on how the draft falls, I’d love to see then wind up with a guy like Evans, or even Lee. I think the TE position is risky, as it seems that high quality TEs can be found later in the draft, and many of the recent 1st rounders never really pan out.

    I’m also a fan of both Will Sutton and Donte Moncrief in later rounds.

  38. Lidman. You just love to be argumentative. Well we’re not talking about 99 percent of the population. NFL franchises obviously are flush with money and can afford to take a long term view. Unfortunately most don’t do it.

  39. Frank..apples to apples…NFL GMs are like individual investors, they can’t simply adhere to a long term strategy, when their short term decisions have major impacts on their jobs (NFL GM) or financial position (individual investors). I’m not talking about NFL franchises having this strategy, I guess you are. But, to continue to be argumentative, I can still tell you that the only way ‘any strategy works, long term’ is if you have consistenly high level play at the QB position. Pittsburgh, NYG, GB, SF, Indy, NE…all these teams have l/t success because of the QB position. All of these teams have had prolonged down periods because of lack of stability at the QB position. Give me an organization with a long track record of futility, and I’ll bet they haven’t had a good QB during the stretch.

    Heck, we should lament the NYJ because they haven’t had stability at the QB position since Woody has owned the team, yet they have been relatively successful, when you compare them to their peer group (the rest of the league).

    I’m not going to belabor this anymore, you’re going a bit ‘Kash’ on me, and simply taking the debate into another direction. We could do this forever, and it’s silly.

  40. NFL teams don’t take long term views because the fan base in large part does not allow them to do so. What fan wants to sit and wait 4,5 years for a team to get better? If a coach and GM aren’t winning by year 2 of the process, they are firmly on the hot seat and could both possibly be fired at the end of year 2.

    I am one of those Jets fans that if the Jets aren’t playoff bound this year, Rex is Fired and Idzik is squarely on the hot seat to produce a winning team in year 3, or he is out the door!

  41. Lidman. I’m not taking it another direction you’re just not understand some basic concepts. There are plenty of GMs that have taken a long term view and have been successful. By the way Idzik has been part of 2 organizations that have won Super Bowls WITHOUT a so called elite QB!

  42. @Lidman

    The ’80-90s Dolphins were pretty mediocre with one of the best QBs ever at the helm. I’m sure there are others…right? Or is that the exception that proves the rule? Chargers & Dan Fouts?

  43. @Frank

    You’re still a twitchy awkward lil creep. :).
    Don’t worry, someone will like you one day.

    As to all this comparison’s of Free Agency and Draft To Business, is simply ridiculous. Selling Tickets, marketing, infrastructure, that’s the business side. This is just a completely different game. This is not a “40 year retirement plan”, its a simple game of putting on an entertaining product on the field. You accomplish this by using a “hard cap” to collect a variety of players to compete against other players, and the more winning teams are more popular, thus higher ticket sales.

    As for the specifics of the draft, in my humble opinion, its like picking stocks, but these stocks don’t have 20 years to mature, they have to show return within the first three years or they’re “sold”. If anything it’s like penny stocks, which while not a perfect anaology, shows that in the modern day NFL you’re looking for almost immediate production. As for the Draft itself, and stocks, its more or less gambling. You have history on the “company”, you hope you know how you’re going to project its growth, and you hope it fits in with your “portfolio”. But to suggest you can follow Buffets strategy for growth is non-sensical; even in financing for the majority of the people because you’re looking for quicker growth then the 8% average.

    So in conclusion, its good that we have more slots to gamble at, and I think its less BPA or Fit; you’re just hoping that whoever you pick produces. Unlike FA where you’re gambling on a much more proven product, draft is usually just a crap shoot that you use the best of your knowledge to determine. It’s nearly impossible to predict how someone turns out at such a young age. You have no idea how Money, working a job, facing more difficult competetion, or future injuries will impact their performance on the field / long term value.

  44. Worldboy90. Wow you crawled out of that hole you live in! You must be miserable to live with!

  45. Glegly, could be both…it depends how you define long term success…Marino played 17yrs and Miami made the playoffs in 10 of those years. You must also take into account that first half of his career only the 3 division winners and 2 WC winners, in each conference, went to the playoffs. In 1990, they added the 3rd WC team, so 6 teams made the playoffs (Marino made 7 of his p/o appearances during this period). When the league added 2 new divisions, it again expanded the playoffs. So, it’s not exactly an apple to apples. comparison. Fwiw, the majority of Fouts career there was only 1 WC team, so, again hard to compare.

    Frank,

    Unfair to qualify Russell Wilson at this point. He threw 27 TDs v 9 INTs and had a QB rating of 101.2, so it’s not like he was being carried buy the team. As for the Bucs, every rule has exceptions.

    This isn’t about Idzik, but because you opened that can of worms, I’ll ask why you didn’t mention his stop in Arizona? Might it be because he was Senior Director of Football Operations and from 2001-2004 the team was 22-42?

    Domenik took the draft approach with TB, you know what it got him: a job with ESPN. GB has the elite QB I talk about, and all they have done is grown through the draft, yet they continually fall in the playoffs. Pittsburgh has built through the draft, they are in cap hell, and they have missed the playoffs the last 2 seasons. The NYG have won 2 Super Bowls and they have used FA, to bolster their team.

    Building through the draft is successful, when you draft good players. You can not separate the strategy from the results when you live in a results oriented world. John Idzik was fired in Arizona because the strategy wasn’t working. He will be fired here if the strategy doesn’t work. For many of the guys who own NFL teams, this isn’t their main source of income. It’s an ego trip. So, telling them that if they stick to this strategy, they’ll have ‘long term, sustained success for 20 years, means nothing to them’. They want to win, so they can put that on their mantle of accomplishments.

    Guy, you have no idea who I am, please stop telling me I don’t understand ‘simple concepts’. My view is you’re continuing to live in this idyllic world where theory matters.
    Well to bring the rhetoric down a notch, ‘everybody has a play until they get punched in the face’. It may have been a good strategy, to try and dance around with a young Mike Tyson, but when that strategy failed, you were a loser. Stop leaning on theory and strategy and quoting Tony Dungy and Polian. It means nothing. Draft great players, make good, savvy acquisitions by trade, UFA or Free Agency, and you get to keep your job…it’s a real world out there.

    Apologies to the rest, I won’t debate Frank on this topic any longer. We’re at an impasse.

  46. Guys, as always: thank you for reading. I really do appreciate the comments. A couple of things, and I apologize if I don’t respond to everyone.

    I’d love Marqise Lee, and think he’d be a great pick at 18. My 3 favorite prospects are Evans, Lee, and Dennard. I’d be fine with either at 18.

    I don’t think Idzik will be on the hot seat if the Jets miss the playoffs. I think this is a long term thing Woody’s trying to build and it seems like Idzik is a part of it.

    I think BPA is a great strategy if all teams were created equal, but because some teams have less holes than others, the best player to them may not be the best player to a team with more holes.

    I’d be floored if the Jets go DL, QB, RB, or OL in the first round. All other positions are fair game, IMO. I’m really excited to see who gets added to, what I think, is a nice nucleus.

    Lastly, everyone has opinions and we all have a right to express our opinions. We can respectfully disagree with each other; it doesn’t need to turn into the name calling and all that. We’re talking about the team we love. Let’s do it respectfully.

    Once again, thanks for reading; I always look forward to all of your comments, and the time you put in to read my stuff.

  47. Going back to OL…

    While we don’t have a multi year track record for Idzik, we do have one for Mornhinweg. Don’t know how much influence he has but as Assistant Head Coach for about a decade w/ 2 different teams, his teams have selected multiple lineman in the draft between round 3 and 6 nearly every year. For some reason his teams like to take flyers on mid round OL talent in the hopes of developing solid (and hopefully cheap) lineman. Some work out, but a lot of them haven’t. In philadelphia a lot of picks were wasted on bad mid round OL. I just hope that this doesn’t follow him to the Jets. Bad thing is that we won’t know until we see how guys like Aboushi and Campbell pan out, but I’m not optimistic based on his track record from Philly. Hopefully it is different here.

  48. Lidman. As usual you are totally clueless. A strategy is an integral part of running any business. You state:

    “Stop leaning on theory and strategy and quoting Tony Dungy and Polian. It means nothing. Draft great players, make good, savvy acquisitions by trade, UFA or Free Agency, and you get to keep your job…it’s a real world out there.”

    I guess you’re more qualified than Dungy or Polian to speak on the subject. LOL. Drafting great players making sound trades, etc, requires that you have a strategic plan and put the correct people in place to run the franchise. I think I’ll listen to Dungy and Polian before I listen to you.

  49. Nice summary. Everyone tends to focus on the 1st round, and its true that many of the best players come from there. But teams win by building depth–and that comes from the later rounds. What happens when your round one receiver gets hurt (or doesn’t develop the way you’d hoped). What happens when your center goes down, or your left tackle? Those guys taken in the later rounds may take a lot longer to develop (like Aboushi and Campbell from last year), but if they do, then your team becomes close to bullet-proof.

    I love that we have 3 4th round picks (though I wouldn’t mind packaging one with maybe a sixth rounder) if that can get us DeSean Jackson. I expect the first couple of rounds to go offense/defense (again, depending on what happens before the draft trade-wise). But those 4th round picks can get us a nice running back, a safety, and some OL depth. The 4th round has been fairly productive for us in the past–Kerry Rhodes, Leon Washington, Brad Smith, Jericho Cotchery, Bilal Powell.

    The biggest knock on Tannenbaum, for me, was his mania for trading away draft picks. There were years when we had only 3 picks! In 2007, 2009 and 2010 combined we had only 11 picks–one less than we have this year! Add to that some monumentally bad choices in the first and second round (Vernon Gholston, Vlad Ducasse), and you can see why we have so many holes to fill right now.

  50. Frank,

    Objectively, I think it’s you that are really missing the point. The idea that NFL owners are patient, and willing to stick to any play, for that long, without seeing results isn’t realistic. The value in their individual brands, franchise value, is directly related to winning.

    I run my own business, and I can tell you when a strategy that has worked stops working, you reevaluate why and alter the strategy depending on the variables that exist. Sure, your claim that this ‘strategy has been proven to work’ may be true, but if you can’t exactly mimic those situations, how can you automatically believe you’ll have success. This doesn’t take into account how your competitors may be changing as well.

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