The regular season has ended, and after a rough start to the season picking games, I rallied a bit to finish at a not-too-pathetic 122-126-7 overall for the season. More disappointing was my Best Bets record, which finished at a paltry 40-42-3. Oh well. Hopefully I can follow up a mediocre season full of horrible screw-ups with an awesome playoff run, make everyone forget that I stunk all year, and then inexplicably get paid $120 million like I’m Joe Flacco or something. That would be cool, huh? Let’s get started!
Colts +1.5 vs. Chiefs – This line swung a full 3 points overnight, so evidently someone out there really loves the Chiefs and dropped a ton of money on them. I don’t care, though. I’m still taking the Colts and I think they end up winning this game by double digits. Andrew Luck and the Colts offense have been clicking lately since they realized Trent Richardson sucks and minimized his role, and I think they’re going to put up some points in this game. The Chiefs defense is facing injury issues, and despite the fact they beat up on some crappy teams this year, I don’t think they’re all that great.
Besides, do you want to be watching this game in the 3rd quarter, knowing your money is riding on this team and you’re seeing Andy Reid holding his red flag ready to inexplicably challenge some stupid play? Are you prepared to see a graphic posted on TV in the 4th quarter about Jamaal Charles that says “Carries: 11” as the announcers talk about how shocked they are that Kansas City refused to give the ball more to their best player? Think about that before putting your money on the Chiefs today. Think about that long and hard.
Colts Over 23.5 Points – Again, I think the Colts are going to put up some points in this game, and I wouldn’t rule out a defensive or special teams touchdown, either.
T.Y. Hilton over 67.5 yards receiving - And to go along with the Colts scoring a lot of points, I present to you the man on offense who will play a big role in that. If you can find any props for Griff Whalen (or if you play FanDuel 1-week fantasy leagues), I would go over on him too.
Trent Richardson Under Everything (37.5 yards Rushing, 2.5 catches) – Trent Richardson sucks.
Saints +3 @ Eagles – I know, I know… I’ve been saying in this space all year that Drew Brees and the Saints are a much different team on the road, especially when they have to play outdoors, or in cold weather. And yes, I know that they’re going to be playing this game outdoors in Philadelphia, in cold weather. BUT… I am not sold on these Eagles just yet.
Sure, Lesean McCoy is awesome and will probably tear up this Saints defense, but do you really trust Nick Foles fully yet? Do you want to be putting your money on Foles and the Chip Kelly (who I admittedly like a lot) in their first playoff game over Drew Brees and Sean Payton, who have proven they can win these types of high-pressure games? Yeah, I don’t know about that, so I’m going to go ahead and take the points here and hope that next week I’m not writing about how stupid I am for going against my anti-Saints-on-the-road sentiment.
Under 54.5 – I like this more than the side actually. I think the Saints are going to win something like 24-20, and this will stay under the posted total comfortably.
Zach Ertz over 2.5 catches – The Saints safety situation is a mess with Vaccaro out. Look for Ertz to exploit that.
Jimmy Graham over 75.5 yards – Jimmy Graham is awesome. Patrick Chung and the Eagles safeties are not.
Bengals -6.5 vs. Chargers – Let’s all pray that the Bengals go out and crush the Chargers as Andy Dalton puts up huge numbers. That would lead to a week full of “Andy Dalton has arrived” segments on ESPN and whatever else, where the “experts” talk about how Dalton can go up into New England and do the same thing and make a Super Bowl run, and yada yada yada. That would bring me great joy, because I would absolutely unload on the Patriots the following week. I would try to punish my bookie with that bet. Fortunately for us all, this is exactly what I think is going to happen. The Chargers stink, plain and simple, and Cincy should beat up on them pretty good. I’m gonna say 31-13.
If you’re the kind of guy who likes to dabble in teaser bets, this game is for you. Get the Bengals down to a pick ‘em and give yourself 6 points on whatever other game you like the best. You’re welcome!
AJ Green over 87.5 Yards- Way over.
Andy Dalton over 1.5 TD’s – Yep, way over. I think 3 or 4.
49ers -2.5 @ Packers – This game is starting to scare me as the week progresses, but I just keep thinking about how God awful that Packers defense is. They are baaaaaad. Like, really very bad. The return of Aaron Rodgers doesn’t change that fact, especially when you think about the 49ers kicked the crap out of these same Packers the last two times they played and as far as I know, Aaron Rodgers was totally healthy in those games as well.
The 49ers are just a terrible matchup for the Packers. They beat them up up front on both sides of the line, they run the ball down their throats, and the Packers have no answer whatsoever for Colin Kaepernick. They also have a far better coach, which makes this even more of a no-brainer pick for me. Take the 49ers.
Colin Kaepernick over 219.5 Passing Yards – I think this one is going to be a slam dunk. The Packers will load up to stop the run and he’s going to pass all over them, especially now that Crabtree is back. Speaking of which…
Michael Crabtree over 4.5 catches – I could see him putting up a 7 catch, 115 yard, 1 TD type of game on Sunday.
Eddie Lacy over 77.5 rushing yards – The Packers should run a lot to take the heat off of Rodgers and avoid that SF pass rush. Lacy could have a big game.
Best Bets: Colts +1.5, 49ers -2.5, Saints +3, Saints Under 54.5, Kapernick over 219.5
Teaser of the Week: 2 Team / 6 Point – Bengals -0.5, 49ers +3.5
Season Record: 122-126-7