I hope everyone didn’t give up on me after a so-so regular season, because just like Joe Flacco and Eli Manning I turned from a crappy regular season player into a superstar once the playoffs began! I hit games, over/unders, and player props to the tune of 12-4 total and a surprising 5-0 on my “best bets”. I’m not patting myself on the back just yet, though (ok maybe just a little), because there is still plenty of work to be done. I’m looking to carry last week’s success into this week, and just like the aforementioned quarterbacks, soon everyone will be calling me elite for no reason whatsoever. Ok, probably not, but still….
Saints +10 @ Seahawks – Yes, I know the Saints got absolutely destroyed a few weeks back in Seattle, and I know they’re a much different team outdoors than they are at home. I also know the Seahawks are rested and awesome at home and the 40 mph winds expected at game time seem to favor the team with Marshawn Lynch and the better defense. But despite all that, I’m taking the points and rolling the dice on Sean Payton and Drew Brees having a few tricks up their sleeve. The odds at sports bookmaker sports.bwin.com/en/nfl also look healthy so I am quietly confident.
It’s extremely hard to beat a good team twice in a few weeks, especially by double digits both times and despite what the media will have you believe about Russell Wilson, the Saints are better than the Seahawks in two key areas in this game – quarterback and head coach. I’m not saying the Saints are going to win this game, but I definitely don’t think it’s out of the question, and I think it’s going to be close throughout. Seahawks 23 – Saints 20.
Saints + 6.5 First Half – A fast start is essential for the Saints today and there’s a good chance they can catch the Seahawks off guard to start the game.
Seahawks Under 27 Team Points – I would take the under 44.5 for the game, but I feel more confident in this one.
Mark Ingram over 42.5 Rush yards – The Saints are going to have to run the ball a lot today if they’re going to take the crowd out of the game. Ingram played well last week and I can see the Saints really relying on him today. I like this one a lot actually.
Russell Wilson Under 220.5 Pass Yards – Gonna see a lot of Lynch today.
Patriots -7 vs. Colts – This might be my favorite pick of the week. I don’t get these Colts at all, they really aren’t very good but somehow they keep making these miraculous comebacks and winning games. Well today all of that ends. If they get off to yet another poor start (and they will), the Patriots are going to absolutely bury them. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are not Alex Smith and Andy Reid and Foxboro in the cold is quite different than the friendly confines of their dome. This could be a blowout. Patriots 38 – Colts 20.
Patriots -4 First Half – Forget what I said earlier. THIS is my single favorite bet of the week. Belichick and Brady will be ready and I’m banking on another poor Indianapolis start.
Over 51 – You saw the score I’m predicting. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Colts even tack on a few more late points that don’t quite get them the cover, but adds on to the total. Throwing this into a teaser could be nice as well.
Trent Richardson Under 35.5 Total Yards – Hahahahahahahaha. I hope you listened to me last week and took those two Trent Richardson under props. Because as we all know, Trent Richardson sucks.
Coby Fleener over 3.5 catches & 35.5 Yards – I’m taking both of these. The Pats are going to be ALL OVER T.Y. Hilton and Luck is going to have to throw to somebody. That somebody will be Coby Fleener who will be matched up against the Pats’ crappy linebackers.
LeGarrette Blount over 65.5 rush yards – I can’t believe I’m taking a Blount over bet, but I am doing it. Stevan Ridley sucks and can’t be counted on because he fumbles from the time he steps out of bed in the morning and Belichick loves him some Blount. I think he will end up over 100.
49ers -1 @ Panthers – By taking the 49ers in this game, I’m going against so many gambling principles that I have. I’m going against a home #2 seed underdog, I’m taking a west coast team in an early 1:00 game, and I’m backing the worse quarterback. Hmmm… actually am I sure I want to be against the panthers here?…………….(thinking)………….. Yes, yes I am.
I’m not a Colin Kaepernick fan really, but since Michael Crabtree has come back, he’s looked like a much better player. Funny how that works, huh? You get a start receiver back and suddenly look like a better QB? Take notes, John Idzik! Anyway, Kap is playing really well lately, but the main reason I’m backing the 49ers here is the coaching matchup. I’ll take Jim Harbaugh over Ron Rivera any day of the week. Throw in the fact that the Panthers upset the 49ers in San Fran earlier this year and there’s plenty to like here. I’m laying the point. 49ers 23 – Panthers 20.
Michael Crabtree Over 5 catches & 69.5 yards – I like both of these, just like last week. And just like last week, I expect Crabtree to have a 7 catch, 100 yard type of game.
Kaepernick Under 40.5 rush yards – Just a hunch, but I think Carolina will contain him and make him pass to beat them.
Broncos -9.5 vs. Chargers – Hey, have you guys heard that Peyton Manning hasn’t been great in the playoffs? Have you heard that he stinks in cold weather? Guess what, so has he! And I’m willing to bet my hard-earned cash that he’s pretty pissed off about having to hear the constant crap about his playoff performances and he’s going to come out and absolutely light these Chargers up. Besides, EVERYONE and their brother is taking the points with San Diego this week and that’s never a good thing. This week Peyton Manning reminds everyone why he’s Peyton Manning. Broncos 41 – Chargers 21.
Danny Woodhead Over 57.5 Rush & Rec Yards – This is the lock of locks, I think. The Chargers are going to try and establish a ball control offense, and with Ryan Mathews banged up, Woodhead is going to play a major role in this game.
Ryan Mathews Under 70.5 Rush Yards – To piggyback off the Woodhead prop, here you go!
Peyton Manning Over 325.5 Yards – Yep.
Knowshon Moreno Over 85.5 Total Yards – He’s going to have a big game.
Best Bets: Patriots -7, Pats -4 1H, Woodhead over 57.5, Seattle Under 27, Saints +10
Teasers of the Week: 3 Team / 10 Pt – Saints +20, Broncos +.5, 49ers +9; & 2 Team / 7 point – Patriots PK, Patriots-Colts over 4
Last Week: 12-4 Total (3-1 games, 2-0 o/u, 7-3 Props), 0-1 Teaser, 5-0 Best Bets
Season Totals: 134-130-7, 45-42-3 Best Bets, 12-9 Teasers