The NFL Conference Championship Games have arrived and while we couldn’t have asked for two better games and both should be awesome, it’s also a pretty sad day. It’s pretty much the last day of football for a while and that means the end of betting on football, which is extremely sad. What isn’t sad, though, is this awesome run I’ve been on picking games, over/unders, and props lately. Since the playoffs began I’m on a 26-11 run and I’m hoping to get one more good week out of this run to end the season on a really strong note. I told you I was going to pull a Joe Flacco and I’m almost there. Let’s get to it!
Patriots +5.5 @ Broncos – I love the Patriots today. Maybe not quite as much as I did last week when they kicked the crap out of the Colts and fattened my pockets for me, but I still think they definitely cover this spread and maybe even win outright. As a Jets fan it pains me to be rooting so heavily for Tom Brady and as a human being it hurts to cheer for the team that employed a mass murderer for so long, but hey, money talks, right? You just don’t pass up a chance to grab this many points with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.
I think this will be a 3-point game either way, and while at the end I do expect the Broncos to pull out the win as Peyton Manning manages to silence some of his critics, it’s going to be close throughout. Grab the points. Broncos 27, Patriots 24
Patriots +3 First Half – Pats 1st Half was my biggest bet last week, and I love it again today. Call me crazy, but I think Belichick is going to have a pretty great plan to start this game strong. I’ll take him over John Fox any day.
Under 57.5 – The Patriots and their newfound power running game are going to be on full display in this game as they do everything they can to keep Peyton Manning off the field.
LeGarrette Blount over 72.5 rush yards – Yeah, you know that power run game I was talking about earlier? No reason to think Blount won’t be around 100 yards again this week.
Michael Hoomanawanui Under 1.5 catches – What the hell? This is a prop? I’ll take my chances on the under with this one…
Peyton Manning Under 320.5 yards – Both teams are going to be running the ball a lot in this game, so the passing numbers will suffer. I think the Pats are going to dominate time of possession and keep Peyton off the field.
Demaryius Thomas Under 82.5 yards – Belichick is going to do everything possible to limit Thomas in this game. Which leads me to…
Erik Decker Over 4.5 catches – Love this prop here. Decker is going to be in single coverage all day and he should be eager to make up for last week’s disaster of a game he had.
Seahawks -3.5 vs. 49ers – Initially I liked the 49ers in this game, but the more I think about it, I think the Seahawks are going to win and advance to the Super Bowl. I know Seattle looked awful last week and will be without Percy Harvin this week; I know that the 49ers looked dominant against Carolina; I know that on a neutral field the 49ers are probably a better team overall than the Seahawks. But that’s the thing – this isn’t a neutral field. It’s the most UN-neutral field in the NFL. Seattle is basically impossible to play in for road teams, and I just do not trust Colin Kaepernick to make enough plays to win this game.
On the other side of the field, I think Russell Wilson is going to bounce back and do enough to win the game. I’m not saying it will be easy, but the 49ers secondary can be beat and that’s exactly what’s going to be the difference in this game. Seahawks 24, 49ers 20.
Frank Gore Over 67.5 rush yards – The Niners are going to run the ball. A lot. And Frank Gore is the guy who they’re going to ride. I’m not expecting a gaudy average or anything, but Gore is going to get plenty of chances.
Vernon Davis Over 40.5 receiving yards – You know the story in this game. Seattle has the best secondary in the league and are going to shut down the receivers. Someone is going to have to get the ball and that will be Vernon Davis against the suspect Seahawks linebackers.
Russell WIlson Over 30.5 rush yards – I think WIlson is good for two or three big plays today with his feet as the 49ers maybe overcommit to stuffing Lynch.
Golden Tate Over 50.5 receiving yards – With Harvin out, Tate is going to be the man in the Seattle passing game. The 49ers DB’s are not exactly the greatest so there will be chances for big plays.
Best Bets: Patriots +5.5, NE/Denver Under 57.5, Decker Over 4.5 catches, Tate Over 50.5, Seattle -3.5
Teaser of the Week: 3 Team / 10 Point: Patriots +15.5, Under 67.5, Seahawks +6.5
Last Week: 14-7 Overall (3-1 games, 2-0 Over/Unders, 8-5 Props, 1-1 First Halves), 4-1 Best Bets, 2-0 Teasers
Playoffs Overall: 26-11 Total (6-2 games, 4-0 O/U’s, 15-8 Props, 1-1 1st Halves), 9-1 Best Bets, 2-1 Teasers
(Feel free to give me crap on Twitter if you tail any of these picks and they lose. I probably deserve it)