Week 13 NFL Gambling Advice and Picks

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Back in my week 1 gambling article, I said that we would all blink and before we knew it week 13 would be here. Well, week 13 is here and it sure does seem like this season has flown by, doesn’t it? On the bright side, I’m coming off my best week of the season picking games so far as I went 10-4 and 4-1 on my best bets in week 12. In fact, the past four weeks have been great in general and I’m almost back over .500 for the season. It’s kind of depressing that I’m on such a hot streak and still under .500 but whatever, that can’t bring me down. I’m feeling great about this week and looking to keep it rolling along. Let’s get to it…

Packers +7 @ Lions

Raiders +9.5 @ Cowboys

Steelers +3 @ Ravens

As usual, I picked the Thursday games on Twitter and I managed to go 2-1 thanks to an awesome backdoor cover on a Raiders field goal and one of the craziest endings to an NFL game I’ve seen in a while in the Steelers game. I’ll take the 2-1 start to the week.

Titans +4 @ Colts – Yes, the Colts are a much better team at home than they are on the road, and they probably aren’t quite as bad as they looked last week in Arizona, but don’t be fooled; This team sucks. Without Reggie Wayne, Andrew Luck has looked lost, and they have quite possibly the worst running back in the NFL in Trent Richardson proving “support”. Don’t be surprised to see the Titans win this one outright.

Jaguars +7.5 @ Browns – I’m sorry, but how in the hell can Brandon Weeden be favored by more than a touchdown against ANYBODY? You’d have to be drunk to lay that many points knowing that your money is on BRANDON WEEDEN. Take the points in what is sure to be an ugly game.

Panthers -7 vs. Bucs – Sure, the Bucs are hot and playing better lately, but who have they really beaten? An awful Falcons team? The Incognito-Gate Dolphins? The Lions was a fairly impressive game, but they caught that team at the perfect time. I’m not buying into the Greg Schiano-led Tampa Bay revival. In fact, I’m going to cherish these last few weeks of “Greg Schiano, NFL coach” before he gets fired because it will be a long time before we see a head coach so hated by everyone and so incompetent at his job. Cherish these last few opportunities to bet against him.

Bears PK @ Vikings – The Bears are terrible, and Adrian Peterson might run for 500 yards against them this week, but I just can’t bring myself to take the Vikings in this spot. I think they secretly decided to tank the season to secure a high draft pick but instead of making it too obvious, they just let Leslie Frazier keep his job and continue doing what he’s doing. It’s the best way to tank without being too obvious about it. Leslie Frazier is terrible.

Eagles -3 vs. Arizona – I love this Cardinals team, and they’re pretty much an automatic bet for me when they’re at home. On the road, not so much. These Eagles are coming off a bye and badly need this win to keep pace with the Cowboys for the division championship. Plus there’s the whole west coast team traveling east for a 1:00 game factor at play here. Add it all up and I’m laying the 3 points. Eagles win, 27-20.

Jets -1.5 vs. Dolphins – I am strangely confident that the Jets are going to win this game and actually do some things on offense for a change. In fact, I decided against using the Dolphins defense in my fantasy league this week and instead am going with the amazing Mo Wilkerson and the Jets D instead. I think that’s where this game is going to be won because the Dolphins won’t have a prayer to run the ball and will have to drop back Ryan Tannehill 40 times behind this horrendous offensive line. That’s going to lead to some terrible things and a Jets 24-10 victory.

Patriots -7 @ Texans – My God, the Texans are terrible. This could be a statement type of game for the Patriots where they win 42-10 or something like that.

Falcons +4 @ Bills – This game isn’t really a home game for the Bills because it’s in Toronto in a dome, which really helps the Falcons out. Had it been outdoors in Buffalo, I would have laid up to 7 points on the Bills here. Buuuuut, since the Bills have no fans, they play these stupid games up on Toronto and it’s all very stupid. I’ll take the points.

Rams +7.5 @ 49ers – Ok, so the Rams are coming off a bye, have a terrific defense, and had two weeks to prepare for Colin Kaepernick, who pretty much stinks this year without Michael Crabtree. This just seems like way too many points, even though Brian Schottenheimer had two weeks to come up with what is surely to be a terrible game plan.

Chargers +1 vs. Bengals - Sorry, I just don’t believe in Andy Dalton and I’m not going to take him on the road. The Chargers are desperate and they’re going to win this game, plain and simple.

Broncos -6.5 @ Chiefs – Peyton Manning is coming off a pretty embarrassing performance last week in New England and he’s going to have to take out all of his rage on someone. The Chiefs defense is extremely banged up and injured, and they stand next to no chance in this game. It could get ugly.

Giants +1 @ Redskins – I guess nobody has learned their lesson yet that the Redskins are quite possibly the worst team in the NFL. RG3 looks awful, Mike Shanahan and his son Fredo are VERY awful, and defensive coordinator Jim Haslett is the worst coach in the NFL this side of Dom Capers. Nothing can make me pick the Redskins in a game where the spread is any less than 14 points. Take the Giants.

Saints +4.5 @ Seahawks – If any offense is going to roll into Seattle and put up points, it’s going to be these Saints. This feels like a field goal game to me, so getting 4.5 is a gift. In fact, I think the Saints may win this one outright.

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Best Bets: Eagles -3, Giants +1, Chargers +1, Jets -1.5, Patriots -7

Teaser of the Week: 2 Team / 6 Point – Patriots -1, Panthers -1

Last Week: 10-4 Overall, 4-1 Best Bets, 0-1 Teaser

Season: 83-87-5 Overall, 30-29-1 Best Bets, 10-6 Teasers