Turn On The Jets 12 Pack, Week 13 Edition

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Due to the holiday, we have been unable to dive into the New York Jets specific match-up against the Miami Dolphins as much as we’d like to. Fortunately, the 12 Pack will help rectify that, along with some of our other content on the way today and tomorrow.

Ironically, both the Jets and Dolphins have strong front sevens and offensive lines that are ripe to be taken advantage of by a strong front seven. From the Jets perspective, they should be able to run the football effectively. Miami is 25th in the NFL against the run and a healthy dose of both Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell would be wise to keep the chains moving and to help Geno Smith avoid third and long situations.

However, the Jets must advance past their recreational football game-plan from the previous two weeks. Marty Mornhinweg did a good job early in the season of allowing Geno Smith to push the football vertically down the field and use concepts he succeeded with at West Virginia. You don’t need to drop Geno back 25-30 times but when he does throw, mix in a few quick hitting screens, slants and whip routes (shown twice below by Jeremy Kerley) to help get him going.

Considering that Kerley is a game time decisions and is probably a long shot to play (which has been an ongoing huge blow to the Jets offense), perhaps give Greg Salas or Josh Cribbs the opportunity to run these routes and hopefully provide some relatively close approximation of the production. Outside of the quick hitting routes, Smith succeeded with the four vertical concept earlier in the season (as discussed in the link and shown below on a touchdown to Jeff Cumberland). With Cumberland’s recent struggles, it is time to work both Kellen Winslow Jr and Zach Sudfeld down the seam and hope to pick up a few chunk plays.

Defensively, the Jets are going to stop the run…because they always do and because the Dolphins struggle in general running the football. They should be able to get after Ryan Tannehill because of Miami’s continued problems upfront. However, both Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline have the ability to get deep, which is how teams have torched the Jets this season. With the offensive struggles right now, this defense needs to avoid the requisite long touchdown pass they allow each week and force a turnover or two.

Antonio Cromartie is a game time decision and the reality is that the Jets would benefit from him sitting down a week or two. He has struggled every week this season and whether that is due to injury or age, the defense would be better off with Darrin Walls taking the bulk of reps over him on Sunday.

It is probably fair to expect a lower scoring game that will have plenty of sacks and likely a few turnovers mixed in. The Jets are 4-1 this season at MetLife, while the Dolphins have lost their last three away games. Despite looking incredibly putrid the past two weeks, this is a winnable game for the Jets. Can they pull it out and continue to play relevant games in December? Let’s dig into the 12 pack to find out…

1. The Dolphins will run for less than 80 yards as a team.

2. Bilal Powell and Chris Ivory will combine for 25-30 carries and rush for a combined 125 yards and a touchdown.

3. Charles Clay will have a big day for the Dolphins, finishing with 60+ yards receiving and a touchdown.

4. Brian Hartline will have 55 yards receiving and a touchdown.

5. Mike Wallace will be held in check, finishing with less than 40 yards receiving and no touchdowns.

6. Greg Salas will lead the Jets in receptions and receiving yards, as neither Jeremy Kerley or Santonio Holmes will suit up.

7. Muhammad Wilkerson will grab his 11th sack of the season.

8. Cameron Wake will sack Geno Smith twice.

9. Ryan Tannehill will throw for 270 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception and be sacked 3-5 times.

10. Quinton Coples will have 1.5 sacks.

11. Geno Smith will throw for 175-200 yards, with 1 touchdown and 1 interception. He will rush for 20 yards.

12. The Jets will win 20-17 on a late field goal from Nick Folk.

12 Pack Record – Against the Spread (6-5), W/L (4-7)

  • KAsh

    Joe, stop predicting one TD, one INT games for Geno. You made the same prediction the past two weeks, and we all know how those games turned out…

  • murdock

    Wow, i almost lost my breakfast on that mike wallace line!!! are u serious, only 40 yards? jets will be lucky if it isnt over a 100,,if the jets dont drop back 8 coverage ALL GAME, they are finished,,and if I see ANOTHER GENO ROLL RIGHT AT THE ONE YARD LINE AND THROW INTO THE RIGHT CORNER OF ENDZONE WITH # JET RECEIVERS AND 5 DEFENDERS?? IM DONE….

  • KAsh

    @murdock

    Wallace? He sucks.

    He has less than 40 yards in five games this year. He has 41 yards in a sixth game. He is averaging just over one reception on every two targets (49 catches on 96 targets), and has always needed over ten targets to get over 100 yards in the three games he has done it.

  • Mark Phelan

    Does the notion that the Jets running game is the key to avoiding 3-and-long hold true?

    I was hoping the Jets would pass first against Baltimore. Did not happen. I did not keep count but I would be interested in seeing what the sequences were for 1st & 2d downs, and what the 3d down positions were.

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