TOJ Week 12 NFL Gambling Advice and Picks

Well, that hot streak sure was fun while it lasted. Then week 11 happened and crushed me in a monster way. I went just 5-8-2 and even worse, lost what I called my favorite pick of the season so far as the Patriots lost to the referees — uhh, I mean the Panthers on Monday night. Actually, it’s not really fair to say the refs cost them that game (even though they did) because the Patriots pretty much beat themselves. Their secondary is the gold standard when it comes to proving that Pro Football Focus is merely a tool and not the gospel when it comes to grading football players because despite their high rankings, they are pretty crappy, and Fumbles Ridley is just a horrible player. Can you tell I’m still bitter about that game? Let’s just move on to week 12…

Falcons +7.5 vs. Saints – Ok this one helped ease a little of the Monday night pain. As per usual, I released this pick on Twitter and my reasons were simple. Even though the Falcons are trash, the Saints were in between games against the 49ers and the Seahawks and were on a short week. There was no doubt they’d win, but it would be closer and lower scoring than everyone thought. 1-0 to start the week!

Browns -1 vs. Steelers – This is one of my favorite picks of the week so do with that information what you will. The Steelers are a huge public team and despite everyone being on the Steelers, the line has not moved. The Browns have a really tough defense and they’re going to win this game by a touchdown. Don’t be fooled by the Steelers recent hot streak. They stink.

Bucs +10 @ Lions – Revis will help slow down Calvin Johnson and the Lions defense is so bad that Mike Glennon should be able to put up enough points to cover this number. This spread feels about 3-4 points too high so I’m taking the points.

Packers -5 vs. Vikings – The Vikings defense is so bad that the Packers don’t even need a quarterback in this game so it really doesn’t matter who is taking the snaps. Expect a huge game from Eddie Lacy and for the Packers defense to be able to feast on Christian Ponder. By the way, how does Leslie Frazier always seem to escape criticism? That guy is a horrendous coach.

Jaguars +10 @ Texans – Too. Many. Points.

Jets +3.5 @ Ravens – Well, it’s the Jets turn to win a game in the bizarre win one, lose one pattern they’ve been doing. Whenever people count out the Jets after yet another horrible performance, they always manage to bounce back and win a game nobody thinks they will. Well, this Ravens team pretty much stinks and I truly believe the Jets will win this game outright. What’s good is that we will know if they’ll win pretty early in the game because they either keep it close throughout the game and win, or Geno Smith just ruins everything in the 1st quarter and they’re getting blown out early. If they keep it close in the first half today they’ll win.

Chargers +4 @ Chiefs – Just a hunch.

Rams -1 vs. Bears – The Rams are coming off a bye and getting the Bears off a crazy win last week. I think in their dome against this banged up Bears defense, they’ll pull it out even though they still inexplicably have Brian Schottenheimer on their coaching staff.

Dolphins +4.5 vs. Panthers – This is a no-brainer here. The Panthers are riding high off their win on Monday night and everyone has jumped on their bandwagon. That’s never a good sign. Dolphins cover here and maybe even win outright.

Cardinals -2.5 vs. Colts – The Cards are good at home. The Colts stink on the road. End of story.

Titans -1 @ Raiders – Matt McGloin had a great game last week as they caught the Texans by surprise. The Titans have a sneaky good defense and I don’t expect that to happen again this week. Titans win big.

Giants -1 vs. Cowboys – I can’t believe we’re on the verge of seeing the 7-9 Giants win the NFC East and go to the playoffs.

Patriots +2.5 vs. Broncos – Yeah, I know what I said about the Patriots secondary being absolute crap. And for some reason they’re still going to play Stevan Ridley. But still, the weather is going to be a major factor in this game and I just can’t see Brady and Evil Bill losing two straight prime time games. I think the Patriots win this game. Unfortunately.

49ers -4.5 @ Redskins – They can make this spread as high as they want and Im still taking the 49ers here. The Redskins are so bad. Terrible. Absolutely awful. And I love every bit of it. RG3 stinks this year, the Shanahans are being exposed as frauds. It’s all so great. Take the Niners.

Best Bets – Browns -1, Dolphins +4.5, Rams -1, Titans -1, 49ers -4.5

Teaser of the Week – 3 Team / 10 Point – Jets +13.5, Patriots +12.5, Dolphins +14.5

Last Week – 5-8-2 Overall, 2-3 Best Bets, 0-1 Teaser

Season- 73-83-5 Overall, 26-28-1 Best Bets, 10-5 Teasers

Author: Mike Donnelly

Mike Donnelly is a Staff Writer and life-long Jets fan, who was previously a featured columnist at multiple other New York Jets and fantasy football websites. He lives and works in finance in the NYC area and will help lead our Jets and NFL coverage in 2013.