TOJ Week 11 NFL Gambling Advice and Picks

Week 11 has arrived and so has my long-awaited picks hot streak! I told you it couldn’t stay that bad forever, and in the last two weeks thinks really started to heat up for me… which probably means I’m do for a massive disappointment and a 1-14 week or something like that. But let’s try to avoid all that and ride this hot streak at least one more week. In the past two weeks I’m 17-8-1 and Best Bets are 7-3. And yes that’s me puffing out my chest and patting myself on the back. Deal with it! Let’s get on with the show…

Titans +3 vs. Colts – As per usual, I released this pick on Twitter and it was looking pretty great… for about 3 quarters. It ended up as a push, but it was huge for the Jets so I consider that a moral victory. 0-0-1 to start the week.

Jets -1 @ Bills – I wrote about this in my Stock Watch, but I just can’t see the Jets losing this game. I know ALL ABOUT their history with losing games like this, but I just don’t see it this week. Not with this defensive line and coming off a bye. It will be closer than it should be, but Jets win.

Falcons +1 @ Bucs – Sure, the Falcons are terrible and I hate Steven Jackson more than words can describe but let’s be real here. Greg Schiano and this Bucs team winning two games in a row? Laughable!

Steelers +3 vs. Lions – I’ll just throw it out there now and say I don’t have a strong opinion on this one. I just don’t have a lot of faith in the Lions going into Pittsburgh and beating them by a whole lot. This one will come down to the wire.

Redskins +4.5 @ Eagles – For some bizarre reason the Eagles are terrible at home. The Redskins, meanwhile, are terrible wherever they play but they did have a few extra days to prepare for this one after playing on Thursday last week and they’re in full-blown desperation mode. Feels like a field goal game to me.

Bears -3 vs. Ravens – If I had to pick one game this week to be a push, this would be the one. I think the Bears will be able to win this one at home and the bad weather expected for the game favors them I think. By the way, have you seen Ray Rice play this season? He’s battling it out with Kevin Garnett for the most washed up athlete in a major professional sport award. They’re neck and neck.

Browns +6 @ Bengals – Quite possibly my favorite bet of the week. Or my favorite bet of Sunday anyway. The Browns are coming off a bye and facing this Bengals team that is absolutely reeling right now. This Browns defense is for real and they will make life difficult for Andy Dalton all day. This line is like 2.5 points too high. I’ll take that all day.

Texans -9 vs. Raiders – Someone named Matt McGloin is starting at quarterback for the Raiders this week. (Googles Matt McGloin…) OH MY GOD! That’s that crappy quarterback from Penn State a few years back? Oh God no. No. No. No. No. Raiders have no chance.

Cardinals -7 @ Jaguars – Yeah, Carson Palmer being a touchdown favorite on the road is normally a MUST AVOID situation, but I mean, it’s the Jaguars. I’ll take my chances.

Chargers -1 @ Dolphins – Not much funnier than the Miami Dolphins, is there? They lost to the Bucs last week. Think about that. They lost to GREG SCHIANO. The Chargers need this win badly, and they’ll get it.

Seahawks -12 vs. Vikings – The Seahawks regained some of their mojo last week when they stomped the Falcons, and I think they’ll carry that over to this week. The Vikings played really well last week and got the win over the Eagles, but this one could get ugly I think.

49ers +3.5 @ Saints – Let’s get this out of the way first: Colin Kaepernick sucks. He’s really not very good at all despite all of the “experts” out there fawning over him for the past year or so. We even had Ron Jaworski proclaim that he could be the best quarterback of all time… OF ALL TIME!! Defenses have figured him out, they don’t let him run, and he sucks as a passer. Now all that being said, I think the 49ers are actually going to win this game straight up and play their best game of the season. The NFL is crazy like that.

Giants -4 vs. Packers – You know the drill, I’m gonna pick the Giants every week. This time I do actually think they’ll cover the spread though because the Packers are using some joker at quarterback this week by the name of Tolzien or Talzien or something like that. No matter how you spell it, that guy sucks.

Chiefs +8.5 @ Broncos – The Chiefs remarkable run of good luck continues as Peyton Manning was injured in last week’s game and is banged up for this week. I think the Chiefs keep it close.

Patriots +2.5 @ Panthers – RED ALERT! RED ALERT! It is time to unload and make what will be my biggest bet of the NFL season. Buy this line to 3 if you can and take this one to the bank, but you probably won’t even need that because the Pats are winning this game outright. Belichick had a whopping 15 days to prepare for this game and the Panthers are coming off a slugfest in San Francisco last week. The Pats have a healthy Gronkowski, a healthy Amendola, and Shane Vereen is coming back. Oh yeah, and they have a guy named Tom Brady playing quarterback. It’s not amateur hour like last week against Kaepernick. I think the Pats are going to roll in a big way.

Best Bets: Patriots +2.5, Browns +6, Redskins +4.5, Jets -1, Steelers +3

Teaser of the Week: 3 Team / 10 point – Patriots +12.5, Seahawks -2, Browns +16

Last Week: 9-4 overall, 4-1 Best Bets, 0-1 Teaser

Season: 68-75-3 Overall, 24-25-1 Best Bets, 10-4 Teasers

Author: Mike Donnelly

Mike Donnelly is a Staff Writer and life-long Jets fan, who was previously a featured columnist at multiple other New York Jets and fantasy football websites. He lives and works in finance in the NYC area and will help lead our Jets and NFL coverage in 2013.