TOJ Week 8 NFL Gambling Advice & Picks

Well another week has come and gone, and another losing week is in the books, as I finished week 7 a disappointing 7-8. But don’t worry, I think this is the week we turn it all around! Six teams are on bye this week, which means there are 3 less games to pick, so I’m gonna go ahead and say that means I’m able to focus more on the games that are being played and deliver a winning week! Besides, this is the first week I’m posting this column on Sunday instead of Saturday, so perhaps the change in days will be good. Ok, you’re right.. it probably won’t matter at all. Oh well. Let’s get started.

Panthers -6 @ Bucs – One of my new gambling rules is that when one team is giving less than a touchdown against another team that totally hates it’s horrible coach, had a former player compare playing for that coach to living in Cuba, and also has a team-wide breakout of a flesh eating virus, I’m laying the points. It worked! 1-0 to start the week.

Jaguars +16 vs. 49ers – It seems like every week the Jaguars are getting a ton of points and I think to myself “OK, they’re going to cover this week because that’s just too many points…” Most weeks I’ve been wrong about that, but being that this game is being played in London and the London games are catastrophes, I’m gonna take the points and hope the 49ers do just enough to win the game comfortably but not cover.

Browns +8 @ Chiefs – It doesn’t say a whole lot for the future career prospects of Brandon Weeden that Jason Campbell represents an upgrade at the QB position for the Browns. Their defense will give Alex Smith fits all day and keep this one close.

Dolphins +7 @ Patriots – This is one of my favorite picks of the week. For some reason the Dolphins always play the Patriots tough and Tom Brady has been playing like crap lately. Of course, now he will probably go out and throw 6 TD’s today, but whatever. I’m still taking the points.

Bills +11 @ Saints – The Saints are a great 3 team teaser option this week, but I do think the Bills will keep this one somewhat close and a backdoor cover really scares the crap out of me in this one. It’s a lot of points, and with Jimmy Graham at less than 100% (even if he plays), the Saints may not be able to really blow the Bills out.

Lions -3 vs. Cowboys – My pick of the week (which shockingly have been pretty good the past few weeks!) is the Lions. Everyone is all over the Cowboys this week after their recent hot streak and not many people are taking the Lions in this game. Well, I consider that a good thing and Calvin Johnson is going to prove me right. Lions roll.

Giants +5.5 @ Eagles – The past few weeks I’ve been picking the Giants simply because I picked them every week and every week they lost, which seemed like a good arrangement for me. This week, however, I think they really do cover this number and maybe even win outright. I don’t trust Michael Vick at all to play a full game and Matt Barkley is basically a homeless man’s version of Mark Sanchez. Ugh.

Raiders +3 vs. Steelers – Here’s a prime example of the entire betting public being all over one team, in this case the Steelers. That is never a good thing, and traveling cross country to Oakland to play is no picnic. Yes, the Steelers are on a 2-game winning streak, but I still say they stinks. Raiders win outright.

Jets +6.5 @ Bengals – Rex Ryan vs. Andy Dalton. Rex Ryan vs. Andy Dalton. Rex Ryan vs. Dalton. Rex Ryan vs. Andy Dalton. Rex Ryan vs. Andy Dalton.

Cardinals +2.5 vs. Falcons – Steven Jackson is back to anger fantasy owners even more this week, so at least there’s that. Otherwise, this is a pretty listless game, but I’m gonna take the Cards at home coming off extra rest. Wait, am I really backing Carson Palmer again? Ugh, I deserve to lose this one.

Broncos -13 vs. Redskins – The Broncos are going to come out guns blazing after that loss last week, and the Redskins are the perfect opponent because they only field 8 players on defense. Or maybe it just seems like they only play with 8 because their defense is a complete and total joke. How does Jim Haslett still find work in the NFL?

Vikings +9 vs. Packers – I don’t know why, but I feel like Christian Ponder is going to play really well in this game. They won’t win, and maybe he’ll just seem like he’s doing really well in comparison to the Josh Freeman Disaster last week, but I’ll still take the points.

Seahawks -11 @ Rams – One of my other gambling rules in life is that when a team prefers to call a 44-year-old Wrangler salesman rather than go with their current starting quarterback, you can’t pick that team the following week. They could have made this spread double what it is and I would have taken Seattle.

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Best Bets: Lions -3, Dolphins +7, Bills +11, Giants +5.5, Jets +6.5

Teaser of the Week: 3 Team / 10 Point – Saints -1, Giants +15.5, Seahawks -1

Last Week: 7-8 Total, 2-3 Best Bets, 1-0 Teaser of Week

Overall: 45-60-2, 15-19-1 Best Bets, 8-3 Teaser(s) of the Week

Author: Mike Donnelly

Mike Donnelly is a Staff Writer and life-long Jets fan, who was previously a featured columnist at multiple other New York Jets and fantasy football websites. He lives and works in finance in the NYC area and will help lead our Jets and NFL coverage in 2013.