TOJ Week 6 NFL Gambling Advice

Can you believe it’s already Week 6 of the NFL season? Man oh man, it sure is flying by. We haven’t quite gotten off to the start I was looking for here through five weeks, but before you know it you’ll look up and say “Wow it’s already week 12?!” and you’ll check my record here to see things have turned around in a big way…. Ok, maybe not, but I’m gonna give it my best shot anyway. It’s the point in the season where you can start to get a read on some teams, so hopefully that helps going forward. Let’s get rolling.

Giants +8 @ Bears – Finally nailed a Thursday night game! (For the record, I post the Thursday picks on Twitter.) My strategy with the Giants going forward is simple. I’ve picked them every week, and every week they’ve lost en route to an 0-6 record. There’s no reason to ruin a good thing, so I’m going to continue to pick the Giants each week, no matter what the spread is.

Ravens +2.5 vs. Packers – I only went 6-8 last week, but the Ravens winning outright against the Dolphins was my favorite bet of the week and quite honestly, my favorite bet of the whole season so far. I don’t like them quite as much this week, but I do think they’re going to do just enough against this Packers team at home to pull out a win. If you do go ahead and bet this game, I would recommend buying that half point up to 3 though, but you should already know that. The Ravens aren’t as good as the team that we saw in January roll through the playoffs, but they’re starting to get Ray Rice involved, and with Clay Matthews hurt, I think they’ll be able to move the ball all game long.

Bucs +1 vs. Eagles – This is if the game is even played, of course. I don’t feel as good about this pick as I did earlier in the week before I found out that Greg Schiano continued his season-long attack against his own players by giving them all MRSA. Ok, maybe it didn’t quite go down like that, but that’s the only explanation I can come up with. As for the game, The Bucs are coming off a bye where they were able to get healthy and presumably get Glennon up to speed a little bit. The Eagles defense is a disaster, and you’d have to think Darrelle Revis is going to shadow Desean Jackson and take him out of the game. I just don’t think the Eagles should be favored on the road at this point against anybody (other than the Jaguars or Giants, of course).

Jets -2 vs. Steelers – I covered this in my weekly Stock Watch. I’m not going to lie, this game scares the hell out of me. The Steelers are coming off a bye and the Jets are on a short week after traveling to Atlanta for Monday Night Football. The Jets also have the Patriots on deck and could fall victim to looking ahead just a little bit. That being said, the Steelers are pretty bad at this point and the Jets defensive line is going to absolutely eat up the Steelers offense up front. Those guys are terrible. If Marty Mornhinweg is able to get Geno Smith comfortable early in this game, and the running game gets clicking, they should absolutely beat this Steelers team, bye week or not.

Vikings -2.5 vs. Panthers – I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention how terrible the whole situation with Adrian Peterson’s son is, and I can’t imagine what he’s going through. Going to prison isn’t a bad enough punishment for that asshole who beat a 2-year-old to death and before being sent off the prison where hopefully he will spend the rest of his life being tortured by the guys in his cell block, the police should let Adrian Peterson have 10 minutes alone with him. Unlike the 2-year-old, Adrian would hit back.

As for the game, this one is simple. The Panthers stink. Ron Rivera is a terrible coach, and Cam Newton is having a pretty terrible season. Simple enough

Chiefs -9 vs Raiders – I don’t think the Chiefs are as good as their 5-0 record would indicate, but there’s no way the Raiders are going to keep this one close in Kansas City. The Chiefs defense is very good, and the Chiefs offense will do enough to grind out a 14-20 point victory in this one. Think something like 27-10.

Texans -7.5 vs. Rams – Schaub vs. Bradford! It’s rare you get to see two quarterbacks so hated by their own fans go head-to-head on a Sunday, but that’s exactly what we’re going to get here. Schaub is absolutely terrible, but the rest of the team isn’t. You know damn well this is going to be a big game for Arian Foster, who the Texans are going to want to ride to keep the ball out of Schaub’s terrible hands. As for the Rams, well, they stink. They’re poorly coached, have no running game, and the defense is overrated. This one could get ugly and will probably lead to a lot of people foolishly thinking the Texans have solved some of their issues.

Bengals -7 @ Buffalo – I don’t know why this line isn’t much higher. Something named a Thad Lewis is starting at quarterback for the Buffalo Bills this week against the Bengals excellent defensive front. On top of that, both of the Bills running backs are banged up, as is #1 WR Stevie Johnson. Yes, Andy Dalton is terrible, but the Bengals can probably hand the ball off every single play and win it on the back of their defense. Also, this is a prime teaser candidate to get the Bengals down to -1, because I just don’t see how they can lose. (Now you should probably go ahead and put your money on Buffalo.)

Browns +2.5 vs. Lions – Even if Calvin Johnson plays, he’s going to be banged up and facing Joe Haden. And we saw last week what happens when the Lions offense doesn’t have Calvin Johnson in there. It wasn’t pretty. It wasn’t pretty at all.

Seahawks -13.5 vs. Titans – Ryan Fitzpatrick going into Seattle? No, I’m sorry, that’s just not going to work out. Then again, maybe Chris Johnson will break out and have a big game against that Seattle defense… HAHAHAHA.. no he won’t. He sucks. My condolences if you are counting on him on your fantasy football team.

Broncos -27 vs. Jaguars – One of the most exciting games of the week. This is the largest spread in NFL history and I can’t wait to see if they cover. The only thing that can hold them back is if they feel bad for Jacksonville and take their foot off the gas sometime before halftime. Even then, I don’t see how the Jaguars cover. What a sad, sad, sad team.

Patriots -2 vs. Saints – My favorite game of the week, especially if Rob Gronkowski gets his broken body onto the field for it. The Pats are coming off a terrible performance on the road in Cincinnati last week, and you know damn well Belichick and Brady are going to bounce back and have the team ready for this game with the undefeated Saints. It won’t be easy, but I think they’ll pull this game out 27-20. I’m sure Belichick has been having the grounds crew muddy up the field and grow out the grass so that the Saints (a dome team) and their fast-paced offense get slowed just a tad. Nothing would surprise me when it comes to that guy.

Cardinals +11 @ 49ers – I just think this is too many points to lay with the Cardinals defense playing as well as it is. Besides, the 49ers offense isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire on offense. Too many points. I’m rolling with the Cards.

Redskins +5.5 @ Cowboys – Yeah, I’m still calling them the Redskins. The media guys making such a big fuss over the team name so that they can pretend they’re the moral authority are pretty hilarious. As fas as I know, they’ve always been named the Redskins. Where was the outrage in the 70’s? Or 80’s? Or 90’s? Screw you, Peter King. Anyway, the REDSKINS are coming off a bye where RG3 hopefully got himself right and is ready to get back to being the player he was a year ago. As for the Cowboys, they’re coming off a demoralizing loss to the Broncos as Tony Romo shockingly threw a game-losing interception. This has “letdown” written all over it. Take the points.

Colts -1.5 @ Chargers – There’s something awfully fishy about this spread here. The Colts are a way better team than the Chargers, but having to travel to San Diego after a huge win at home against the Seahawks could pose problems. This game also could be a huge letdown for Indy, but I’m gonna put my faith in Andrew Luck to cover this small number.

Best Bets: Patriots -2, Redskins +5.5, Ravens +2.5, Bucs +1, Chiefs -9

Teaser of the Week: 2 Team / 6 Point- Bengals -1, Chiefs -3 ; 3 Team / 10 Point – Redskins +15.5, Seahawks -3.5, Ravens +12.5

Last Week: 6-8 Total, 2-3 Best Bets, 2-0 Teasers

Overall: 32-43-2, 10-14-1 Best Bets

Author: Mike Donnelly

Mike Donnelly is a Staff Writer and life-long Jets fan, who was previously a featured columnist at multiple other New York Jets and fantasy football websites. He lives and works in finance in the NYC area and will help lead our Jets and NFL coverage in 2013.