Turn On The Jets Roundtable – 2013 New York Jets Predictions Edition

The TOJ Staff gives their predictions for the New York Jets 2013 season

The Turn On The Jets Roundtable is back to debate issues surrounding the New York Jets. Make sure to give all of the writers a follow on Twitter and if there is a question you want to see us debate, leave it in the comment section! 

What are your predictions for the 2013 New York Jets season? 

Joe Caporoso – Check out the 30 Pack of Predictions 

Mike Donnelly – Tomorrow I’m going to be posting my full season preview Stock Watch, so be sure to check back for that. We’ve all seen the projections for the Jets everywhere that range somewhere between “awful” and “very awful”, but I don’t think the Jets are nearly that bad. There are upgrades all along the defense, at running back, at offensive coordinator, and perhaps even at quarterback with the rookie Geno Smith taking over. A lot of this season is being placed on the shoulders of young Mr. Smith and how he performs will go a long way toward deciding the fate of the 2013 Jets. There are reasons to be hopeful, and my official prediction is 8-8 for this year’s squad.

Cole Patterson – Lets make this simple:

Bucs: Win (Because the Jets interior D-Line will dominate the Bucs weakened interior O-Line. Ivory will run wild). @Pats: Loss (Because Tom Brady on a short week). Bills: Win (Because the Bills run D). @Titans: Loss (Because Chris Johnson will take advantage of a Jets run D still coming into its own). @Falcons: Loss (Because Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez, and Steven Jackson sounds more like a fantasy team than an NFL roster). Steelers: Loss (Because the Steelers’ defense will surprise people and either Antonio Brown or Emmanuel Sanders will abuse Milliner). Pats: Loss (Because Tom Brady). @Bengals: Loss (Because the Hard Knocks darlings look to be sporting a dominant defense and a well rounded offense, too consistent for the Jets to overcome). Saints: Loss (Because Drew Brees will abuse the Jets safeties and control the middle of the field). @Bills: Win (Because Geno Smith will have some games under his belt and let it fly after Ivory opens up the pass with some solid early runs). @Ravens: Loss (Because like the division rival Bengals, they are just too well rounded. Plus Ray Rice could have his way with the Jets linebackers). Dolphins: Win (Because by this point in the season Lamar Miller and Mike Wallace will prove to not be true #1 players and the Phins offense will struggle against the Jets pass rush firing on all cylinders). Raiders: Win (Because Darren McFadden will be in a body cast, the defense has zero proven players, and even IF Terrelle Pryor is the real deal he has no wide receivers). @Panthers: Win (Because Rex, with his job on the line, will have a plan to stop the Cam Newton one man show). Browns: Win (Because Brandon Weeden…) @Dolphins: Loss (Because the Jets will find a way to lose this one, roster is too young and inexperienced for a “win-and-we’re-in” scenario). END RECORD: 7-9

Notes: *The Jets will be 2-7 before the second Buffalo game. *They will be 7-8 going into game 16 against the Phins, with the playoffs on the line in a weak AFC. *Other teams vying for the wildcard will be Colts, Ravens, and Dolphins. *Season hinges on a lot of factors, I tried to account for rookie mistakes from Geno and the rest.

Mike O’Connor –  Well yikes, I’m not even going to try and out-do Cole’s answer there…

I hope I’m not labeled the pessimist of the group, but I have the Jets finishing 6-10 this year, and that’s being quite optimistic.  Ultimately, I think most of the season will depend on Rex Ryan’s handling of the quarterback situation.  If Geno Smith has anything near a decent performance in the games he freely starts due to Sanchez’s injury, I believe he should be ridden as the starter until he suffers mistakes that go behind just rookie growing pains. If Ryan gives in to the media’s glare and gives Sanchez the job back without total failure from Smith, I think he’s fallen into the trap that he has constantly fallen for: mistakes in willpower. If such flaws are evident in his coaching this year, I think he gets the boot, and deservingly so.

Also, I just believe that this Jets’ optimism has come from pure desire to win from the fans. Sure, the defense could potentially be more explosive this year as a whole with the off-season moves, but you’d be in for a tough time to try and convince me that the Jets have less holes than they did last year. Most are forgetting how bad the safety play could be this year, or the same with the play at inside linebacker. Oh, would you look at that? Coincidentally, these lingering flaws are flaws that Rex Ryan has ignored for quite some time now, even though the positions have both undoubtedly gotten worse.

I do think that the running game and receiving corps have enormous potential, but they won’t correlate to wins unless Smith holds up his part of the deal, which is bold to think he can at this point in time.  In fact, writing this all down has made me think of how ridiculous playoff hopes are. Please, feel free to rub this in my face if the Jets make my year and surprise me, but they won’t. Frankly, the rebuilding process that’s only in it’s early-mid stage from John Idzik doesn’t deserve it anyway, it would crush the franchise with false hope. I hate to be so negative, but it’s the reality.

Connor Rogers – I’m going to roll with the general consensus that the Jets are about a six win team. Many reporters and analysts have them at around three wins in a mocking fashion, which is quite disgusting in the national media. A Rex Ryan defense alone will have the Jets at about four to five wins. Assuming they get a bounce or two go in their favor, the Jets will come out with a 6-10 record. While this may be disappointing, progress will be made. I personally feel Geno Smith will be a franchise quarterback. The front seven is young and very promising. This is a building year for the Jets who will be heading in a very positive direction next offseason, loaded with cap space and draft choices.

Mike Nolan – All in all, I think the Jets are about a 6 to 8 win team. If Sanchez were healthy and starting I would probably lean towards 8 wins as they could have realistically started the season 3-1. Because Geno is the starter, I think the Jets will get off to a slower start offensively not because of the talent at QB, but because of the learning curve and adjustment that Geno will need to make to the pro game. With Geno at the helm, I see some promise in the first 4 games, but I think the Jets will go into Atlanta with a 1-3 record.  Could easily see Rex Ryan’s defense starting the season hot and making this 3-1.) After that, it is a tough stretch of games where the Jets could realistically lose 5 in a row, but I think they will beat Pittsburgh (led by Willie Colon with a huge chip on his shoulder). In the end, the Jets will finish off the season pretty hot as Geno gets more comfortable in the offense and they face an easier schedule.  They will beat Buffalo, Miami (once), Oakland, Carolina, and Cleveland at the end of the season to finish strong and give fans hope as they build towards 2014.

Dalbin Osorio – Predictions, predictions. I could just go out on a limb, put all my chips on the table, and say that this team is going to the playoffs, ala Jim Fassel. In fact, that’s exactly what I’m going to do. I think that the Jets go 10-6 and make the playoffs, and here’s why. The biggest improvement to this team that won six games last year is the addition of offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg. All preseason for the Jets, you saw wide receivers running free and with space to make plays in the open field, and I think that having Marty is the biggest reason this team makes the playoffs.

Second, an improved pass rush, led by Mo Wilkerson (the 2nd best defensive end in football behind JJ Swatt), Antwan Barnes, Sheldon Richardson, and the Quiet Coyote Quinton Coples removes the need for Rex to dial up exotic blitzes to get to the QB. A year of development for Stephen Hill and Jeremy Kerley, along with the return of Santonio Holmes and an (if healthy) upgrade of Kellen Winslow Jr over Dustin Keller give the Jets starting QB (at this point Geno Smith) better weapons on the outside than a rookie Mark Sanchez had when the Jets won 9 games and went to the playoffs four seasons ago. Lastly, the schedule is manageable. I think the Jets exit September with a 3-1 record (wins over TB, BUF, and TEN) and enter the bye with a record of 5-4 (wins over the Steelers and Patriots at home during their “Murderer’s Row” part of their schedule). This puts the Jets in prime position to make a run in the second half, and I have them reeling off wins against BUF, MIA twice, OAK and CAR (lone losses to Cleveland and Baltimore), and getting into the playoffs as a #5 seed.

Author: Joe Caporoso

Joe Caporoso is the Owner and EIC of Turn On The Jets. His writing has been featured in the New York Times, Huffington Post, MMQB and AdWeek. Caporoso played football his entire life, including four years at Muhlenberg as a wide receiver, where he was arguably the slowest receiver to ever start in school history. He is the VP of Social Media at Whistle Sports

  • Sean F

    Main factors: Turnover ratio, Health, and Geno Smith ability to make plays. Talent is not vastly inferior as the national media makes it. If they get consistant production from young skill players(Hill,Kerley,Cumberland,Powell)8-8 is not so far fetched cuz I think Defense will be solid

  • John C

    There are a couple areas that are not necessarily improved over last year, those being Safety and Linebacker. I think the line and CBs (depth especially) are definitely better though – So I don’t see the D performing any worse than last year.

    Offensively, I believe all areas are improved (most notably the coaching), and even QB cannot possibly play worse than last year, so that should be a big improvement. I have to admit, I’m not sure what to make of Special Teams – hopefully they will be somewhat improved.

    If the Jets avoid major injuries to key players, I don’t see how they can finish worse than 6-10, and honestly see their floor as being 7-9.

    Certainly, as with all teams, there are a lot of “if” variables, but if (there’s that word again) half of the ifs are answered positively, I see a good possibility for 9-7. In my wildest, “pie in the sky” Jet pipe dreams, I see a possibility of 10-6, if:

    1) Ivory gains 1300 yards
    2) Hill has truly improved
    3) Geno isn’t a bust
    4) The DL lives up to it’s current potential
    5) Someone can play safety better than Eric Smith
    6) Harris and Pace are marginalized (or play like three years ago)
    7) They resist picking up Tim Tebow
    8) Goodson realizes the Jersey Turnpike isn’t a parking lot
    9) Spadola is 3/4 as good as Chrebet
    10) They avoid major injuries in key areas
    11) Wilson is no more than a dime-back

  • Abe

    Maybe I’m nuts but I think because of Marty this offense is going to be 100 times better then last year we won 6 last year I think we go 9-7 this year

  • I think if we just give Geno the chance to grow and run the ball decently with this defense we will go 6-10 possibly 7-9. Let’s Go Jets!

  • Dan

    I love the media disrespect, because every team is going to come in here expecting a cake walk and are going to run into a buzz saw. We have way more talent on offense than anyone is recognizing, and the defense will be fueled by a pass rush like we haven’t seen since the sack exchange. That will cover up weakness at safety and Miliner’s inexperience. 10-6, playoffs and then who knows?

  • Nikolas

    Winners of the AFC East with a 12-4 record! Second best in the AFC to Denver’s 13-3.

  • KAsh

    I am torn. The optimist in me has allied with my gut to tell me that this team can go over .500 due to a good D and an offense that spreads the ball around and never gives the same look twice (and thus resembles somewhat the rival Patriots). My brain, though, agrees with Nolan and O’Connor, who I wanted to call “the Mikes” before I remembered Mike Donnelly. There are weaknesses in the defense and we have seen them give up big plays due to a lapse in concentration. The running game had underwhelmed and we still need to see how our young receivers and this offense hold up during regular season action.

    This team’s fate will really depend on the QB. If Geno is the QB for the entire season, I think we end with a 6-10 record, 7-9 if he learns quickly and Marty centers his game plan on Geno’s strengths and limits his mistakes. The flip side is that there is a possibility of something as low as 3-13 if Geno plays throughout weeks 5-9 and gets his confidence obliterated. But the defense should keep most games low scoring, so, as long as Geno leads one or two TD drives per game, we should manage 6 wins.

    If Sanchez does come back healthy and start, I see slightly bettet prospects. It will be hard to win the first two games with Geno, so I anticipate going 0-2. This team without a QB should be able to beat Buffalo and with Sanchez we should beat the Titans. Now, Sanchez is hot or cold, so the gauntlet stretch will be crucial. Earlier in the year, I believe I said that we have a great chance if we win three of those five, two wins would be the cutoff point for Rex, and less than two would result in Ryan canned by the end of the year, us missing the playoffs, and Geno replacing Mark for the year. If Sanchez gets hot at the right time, I could see us emerge with a 10-6 or an 11-5 record as the best case scenario. If Sanchez is replaced by Geno after the bye week, I still think 6-10 or 7-9 is likely as Geno will not have played through those traumatic games and will feel less pressure and more confidence for the remainder of the season.

    My final verdict is 6-10, with a few caveats based on how the QB intrigue fans out.

  • Angel

    Let me second KAsh’s prediction.

    With Geno starting and perhaps playing the rest of the year the Jets are a 7 – 9 team. Rookies make mistakes… period.

    If Sanchez comes in at game 3 or 4, he makes a 2 game difference and boosts the Jets to 9 – 7. Sanchez WILL make mistakes, but he will make less mistakes than last year with MM calling the shots. I think you can even push it to 10 – 6 if the core starters [especially the O-line] stay healthy, and Rex gets his balls back and preaches his ‘us against the world’ mantra.

  • Sean

    If the Jets had Marty last year instead of Sparano I think the Jets would have had 10 wins and still have a qb. His confidence would still exist. I think Sanchez was primed to have a much better year in this offense. I think its a shame that chances are unless Geno is horrible we will never know

    I think anything less than 6 wins this year means something I went terribly wrong. Geno really really sucked or rex really is a shell of his former self and cant even get his D up to beat the crappy teams that the Bully jets usually blowout.

  • joeydefiant

    “Sure, the defense could potentially be more explosive this year as a whole with the off-season moves, but you’d be in for a tough time to try and convince me that the Jets have less holes than they did last year. Most are forgetting how bad the safety play could be this year, or the same with the play at inside linebacker. Oh, would you look at that? Coincidentally, these lingering flaws are flaws that Rex Ryan has ignored for quite some time now, even though the positions have both undoubtedly gotten worse.”

    When did Rex Ryan become the GM? Rex coaches who makes the roster. Rex doesn’t make the roster. This criticism I see often from people who should know better. Sure, he gets to give his opinion on players but he doesn’t make decisions on who to pick up and who to let go.

    This team went to the AFC Championship game with an inferior rookie QB. Don’t see why Geno as a rookie makes the team a 5-6 win team.

  • Jim G

    With Geno: 9-7

    With Sanchez: 4-12 and Rex fired.

  • Angel

    With Geno at the helm, the Jets go 1 – 4 in there first 5 games, IMO. Then, the Jets will probably go to Mark Sanchez after a shutout loss to the Pats and a horrendous outing by Geno against the Falcons. Here’s my QB stats prediction for the season if Geno plays the first 5 games and Sanchez comes in at week 6 VS the Steelers:

    ATT: 148 COMP: 97 YDS: 956 TD: 4 INT: 6 FMB: 1

    ATT: 385 COMP: 243 YDS: 3,159 TD: 18 INT: 11 FMB: 4

    Again, 7 – 9 under Geno for the year and 9 – 7 if Sanchez comes in, with the potential to be 10 – 6.

  • John

    I’m shocked so many of the writers here went along with abysmal expectations. If you think back to last year, the team controlled their own destiny to the playoffs at 6-7. Think about that for a sceond. And then think about how much baggage (Sparano, Tebow, no #1 or #2 WR or #1 TE with a barely developing #2 in Cumberland, Sanchez, poor OG play, man blocking which was new to the line, no Thomas, Scott or Smith on D, new #1 CB with Revis hurt…the list goes on and on) has been removed, what great new influences have been added (Marty, #1 & #2 WR, RB Ivory and much more depth, Winslow with a more developed Cumberland, better interior DLine play, more depth at CB, more speed at LB, better pass rushers). Some of this I’ve seen from media outlets that pay no more mind to matters than seeing a rerun of the butt fumble but from our own beat guys here, they should know MUCH better than to sleep on Rex this season.
    I think you guys are cowardly protecting yourselves and not honestly assessing what you see building here.

  • Drew

    Wow John, I am going to go ahead and agree with that statement 100%.

    8-8 is such a safe prediction because no matter how we finish we will be close to that.

    We need to stop hyping teams that are on the decline. We can beat the Steelers, Ravens, Pats.

    Toughest games on the schedule are Pats shortened week away and Falcons away MNF.

    Other than that its all up for grabs. Impossible to predict our QB situation because we don’t know the extent of Sanchez injury and we do not know how Geno will play. Factor in turnover and injuries and its all up for grabs this year. Don’t be surprised if the Jets surprise people. This team has improved from the 6 win team it was last year.

  • KAsh

    @John – Like I implied when I agreed with two of them, I think it is an honest assessment. You can have an awesome team on paper, but it needs to translate to the field. No matter what anyone else says, games are won in two ways: moving the chains with greater efficiency and creating more scoring opportunities, or at least doing better than the other team in these two.

    We have a new rookie QB, who should be better than our veteran, but has disappointed. If Geno had shown that he was ready to play in the pros, I would be predicting Super Bowl runs. But, nevermind the interceptions, he has not moved the ball well. He has a great drive that ends in a TD, and then struggles to get a first down in several tries. His performance varies mid-game. You have a lot of emerging speedy wideouts, but you rarely saw them beat their man and sprint down the field with the safety chasing them up the field. You have some talented RBs, but so far they have had trouble getting much further past their line. They do not threaten defenses by getting the team a first down from 1st and 10.

    I find the notion that the defense will automatically get us some wins ridiculous. Unless the front seven becomes a fumble factory or the coverage just eats up interceptions, the defense cannot score points. If it holds up, it can give us good field position (this also depends on the special teams) and keep games close, but our offense needs to convert on the opportunities the defense gives it. A great defense makes games close, but the offense will still need to seize opportunities and break out. And I am not sure that this team, led by Geno, can do that with regularity.

  • Dave

    9-7. CAN’T WAIT.

  • John

    KAsh, I was referring to the writers and even stated so in the first sentence. As to claiming the defense will get us wins – that wasn’t me. Read closer next time.
    As for the D, it was pinned deep in their own territory due to the avalanche of Sanchez mistakes and they still managed to finish as a top defense. Rex’ defense by design doesn’t create turnovers but gets off the field.

  • KAsh

    @John – I usually do not address a single person, but try to dismantle a host of similar arguments. You refered to the team removing baggage and adding influences, as if football is some card game where you add up all the values and the higher ones win. This is the “every aspect of the team is better or cannot get worse” argument in different words. In conjunction with this, people often point out that the defense is so great it will win us some games, which is why I included that in my comment.

    The reason this team does not warrant great expectations this year is that teams and players need time to gel and get used to new circumstances. Our only advantage offensively comes from the QB – unless he spreads the ball around, few of our players will make plays or dominate their matchups. Opposing DCs will game plan for Marty’s offense rather than any receiver or RB that we have. By their individual skills, this is just not a high-scoring offense. And we are not impenetrable defensively to consistently win with a low-scoring offense.

  • John

    Hey KAsh – very cute with the card trick. Actually, you simply choose to dismiss the losses and gains which is your choice but I think it’s an ignorant one. How about you do your prognosticating and I’ll do mine. And please stop twisting my words and deciphering them to mean something else according to your sensibilities. I can communicate fine on my own = this is called free speech. Ever heard of it?
    I gave you my perspective and I’m actually allowed to do so. Your words do NOT reflect mine nor does your interpretation even resemble my points. Not even close.
    I completely disagree with your assessment for what it’s worth – your 2nd paragraph is nearly incoherent and somewhat contradictory.
    We’ll see what the new season brings. I do recall poo-poo predictions last year when the offense could only muster 1 TD in the preseason yet the teammanaged to score more points than all 31 other teams in week one. Let’s see what they can do.

  • Dalbin Osorio

    10-6 guys, playoff bound. You heard it here first.