TOJ – Week 1 Gambling and Fantasy Football Advice

Mike Donnelly with week 1 NFL Fantasy and Gambling Advice

Well look what we have here. The Turn On The Jets gambling column has found a new home in 2013 and it is right here in Donnellyville. Joe searched high and low for the most degenerate gambler he could find, and he picked me. I’m honored. I truly am. Each week I’m going to run down all the games and give a brief synopsis on why I’m picking who I am. Then I’m going to give you my 5 “Best Bets” which are typically the games I’m going to be betting on myself and the “Teaser of the Week”. Yes, teasers are usually sucker bets, but they’re fun, and every once in a while I nail a good one. Then afterwards, I’m gonna give my fantasy football advice for the week. You’re welcome. Let’s get started. 

Bills +10 vs. Patriots – Ok, one of my favorite methods of gambling is “Do the opposite of what everyone else thinks”, and this is a prime example. Everyone expects the mighty Belichick Express to roll into Buffalo and romp a rookie QB. Not me. I think this is a huge game for the Bills and their new regime. New head coach, new QB, new defense, and I think with CJ Spiller on offense and Mike Pettine’s new defense (which is familiar with Brady and Belichick), the BIlls will nearly pull this one out before losing late.

Titans +7 @ Steelers – The Steelers are going to be bad this year, and while the Titans aren’t exactly a powerhouse, I think they’re going to cover this number easy and win outright. Expect a healthy dose of Chris Johnson and even some Shonn Greene en route to a 20-17 win or something along those lines.

Saints -3 vs. Falcons – This game is going to be a shootout, of course, and it could come down to whoever gets the ball last. I think the Saints have a lot more to play for in this game, with Sean Payton returning, having home field, and all that good stuff. It will be close but they’ll pull it out and cover the number.

BONUS: Falcons / Saints over 54.5 – Way over. Two crap defenses. Two great offenses. Don’t overthink this.

Jets +3.5 vs. Bucs – Another game where the entire world is on the Bucs, and that’s never a good sign. Everyone seems to think the Jets are a bunch of incompetent humps being led out to slaughter this season, but that is not going to be the case. Rex Ryan has too much pride, and remember what happened last year’s opening weekend when everyone counted the Jets out. Jets win this one outright and cover easily.

Jaguars +3.5 vs. Kansas City – The Chiefs seem to be everyone’s “They’re so improved!” team, while the Jaguars are still just the Jaguars. Jacksonville will be a big team that Vegas is pulling for thanks to all the KC money they’ll see, and then they’ll go build another wing on the casino when the Jags cover and win outright.

Panthers +3.5 vs. Seahawks – If the Jags are going to build the hotel in Vegas a new wing, then the Panthers are going to make Vegas enough money to just build a whole new hotel. Eeeeeeeveryone is going to be on Seattle this week. They’re everyone’s Super Bowl pick. They have Russell Wilson, blah, blah, blah. They’re also a much different (worse) team on the road and this Panthers team is no pushover anymore. Seattle may pull this one out late, but it won’t be by more than 3. I’d buy the hook up to 4 just to be safe, but I’m going with Carolina nonetheless.

Bears -3 vs. Bengals – The Bengals are another sexy pick this year for everyone, and they’re GETTING points? Whoa! Seems so simple, right? Wrong. The Bears are going to come out firing here in week 1 and they’ll have a raucous home crowd. They win this one going away.

Browns PK vs. Dolphins – Teams that spend a ton of money in the offseason and overpay mediocre players always do great, right? Oh wait, that’s not true at all. Browns win.

Vikings +5 @ Lions – I think both of these teams stink, so I’m taking the points. I may watch just to see if Jim Schwartz punches anybody, though.

Colts -10 vs. Raiders – The Raiders are the worst team I’ve seen in a long time. The Colts are a good team, and they’re home. Yep, lay the points. Also feel free to throw this into any and all teasers.

49ers -4.5 vs. Packers – While I do like the Packers this year, until they show their defense isn’t just a big steaming pile of crap like in last year’s playoffs, you can’t trust them to stay within 10 points of Colin Kaepernick.

Cards +4.5 @ Rams – I know some people are high on the Rams this year, but I think they’re forgetting the offense is still being run by Brian Schottenheimer. I’ll take the points here in a game that I have no clue what to expect.

Giants +3.5 @ Cowboys – To me, this is one of the easiest games on the board. No, the Giants aren’t that good, and their defense might allow 50 points a week, but one this is for sure: They OWN the Cowboys. You know the drill.. every year there’s hype around the Cowboys (“This is the year Romo gets it together!”) and every year the Giants go in there and hand them their asses. This will be no different. Giants win outright.

Redskins -3.5 vs. Eagles – All this fuss about the Eagles new offense and it won’t mean anything this week. RG3 in primetime is going to put on a show against the Eagles porous defense and win this one by double digits.

Texans -3.5 @ Chargers – Another game where the world will be on one team, but this time I’m going to be on their side. How can the Texans not romp this awful Chargers team?

* Teaser of the Week – 3 team / 10 point – Colts PK, Giants +13.5, NO/ATL over 44.5

* Best Bets – NYJ +3.5, Cle PK, NYG +3.5, Was -3.5, Car +3.5

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Fantasy Football Words of the Week

I hope everyone found my articles on how to have a perfect fantasy league and how to dominate your draft useful. Today I’m going to give you my “All Disappointment Team” featuring the players I think are going to disappoint and let their owners down, and then my “Hero Squad” of guys who are going to outperform their draft positions and lead their owners to some championships and the glorious prizes that come with it.

All Disappointment Team

QB:Colin Kaepernick – No WR’s and defenses will figure some read-option stuff out.

RB: Arian Foster – A near lock to get injured and miss some games.

RB: Marshawn Lynch – Just a hunch, but I think he will regress this year fantasy-wise.

RB: Darren McFadden – Hahahahahaha. A walking injury. My condolences if you have him.

WR: Mike Wallace – Rare to be able to see a bust coming from this far away.

WR: Dwayne Bowe – Ask Michael Crabtree how playing WR for Alex Smith is.

WR: Greg Jennings – Going from Aaron Rodgers to Christian Ponder, huh?

TE: Tony Gonzalez – I think the Falcons will try and keep him fresh, reducing snaps.

Honorable mention: Russell Wilson, Frank Gore, Stevan Ridley, Eric Decker, Vernon Davis

Hero Squad

QB: Andrew Luck – Drafted as the 8-10th QB, will finish top 5

RB: Eddie Lacy – The feature back for the Packers, who want to run more this year.

RB: Reggie Bush – Will be a PPR gold mine, should rack up 100 catches.

RB: David Wilson – Going to be an every-down back, should get 1,500+ total yards.

WR: Pierre Garcon – If he stays healthy, he will be a top-10 receiver.

WR: Josh Gordon – Suspended 2 games, but Norv Turner loves him. Big year coming.

WR: Golden Tate – Wilson has to throw to somebody. Tate will shine.

TE: Jermichael Finley – Playing for a new contract, and WR’s are banged up.

Honorable mention: Michael Vick, Ben Tate, Michael FLoyd, Tyler Eifert

Author: Mike Donnelly

Mike Donnelly is a Staff Writer and life-long Jets fan, who was previously a featured columnist at multiple other New York Jets and fantasy football websites. He lives and works in finance in the NYC area and will help lead our Jets and NFL coverage in 2013.