Turn On The Jets is happy to welcome back Evan Silva of Rotoworld and Pro Football Talk to discuss the New York Jets and the NFL. We may have had our share of Twitter scraps with Evan but we give credit when credit is due and he pretty much nailed it with this interview last year. (Of course he also picked the Jets to go 0-16 in 2012 via his popular match-ups column and criminally overrated Ryan Matthews fantasy value but hey we miss on our share of predictions here as well) Our staff and Evan answered the following 20 questions about both the upcoming off-season and season. Give us your feedback on here and on Twitter. A big thanks to Evan for taking the time to speak with us and also a thanks from me for the good call on Danario Alexander last year, who helped carry me to a fantasy title –
Question – Who do the Jets have to cut right off the bat?
Evan Silva – Calvin Pace, Smiths Eric and Jason, and Bart Scott. Those four cuts would clear $30.4 million off the Jets’ 2013 cap. Releasing Sione Pouha could save an additional $3.8 million, and would be a move that makes sense if Rex Ryan believes Kenrick Ellis is capable of holding down nose tackle
Joe Caporoso – Bart Scott, Calvin Pace, Jason Smtih, Eric Smith, Sione Pou’ha, Tim Tebow.
TJ Rosenthal – Scott, Pace, Smith and a few other stragglers… With all due respect to these vets, business is business now.
Chris Gross – Bart Scott, Calvin Pace, Jason Smtih, Eric Smith, Sione Pou’ha.
Mike Donnelly – Simple. Calvin Pace, Bart Scott, Eric Smith, Jason Smith, Sione Po’uha, and most obviously, Ellis Lankster
Steve Bateman – Bart Scott, Calvin Pace, Jason Smith, Eric Smith, Tim Tebow.
Question – Darrelle Revis: Trade or Keep?
Evan Silva – The Jets should keep their best player IF they believe they can sign Revis to a long-term contract. He won’t play ball on his scheduled 2013 pay ($3 million salary + $3 million in bonuses). If the Jets do NOT believe they can extend Revis this offseason, their best option would be to bite the bullet on his $9 million cap hit for 2013 and acquire multiple draft picks to inject the roster with talent
TJ Rosenthal – Trade if you can get a QB you think can start, or at least two top picks. Pains us to say this, but the win total can climb faster by upgrading other positions faster than re-inserting 24. Too many holes right now to not explore the idea.
Chris Gross – Must trade if an agreement cannot be made prior to 2013.
Mike Donnelly – 100% Keep.
Chris Celletti – Keep. Explore trading Cromartie, who’s value has never been, and will never be higher than it is right now.
Steve Bateman – Trade. Luxury the Jets can no longer afford.
Question – Predict Sanchez’s Year in 2013
Evan Silva – I expect Sanchez to enter training camp “competing” for the Jets’ starting quarterback job with someone like Matt Moore or Matt Flynn. Moore is a free agent. I expect Seattle to ultimately release Flynn because he’s not considered a viable starter around the league and the Seahawks will find no takers for his contract on the trade market. I think Sanchez will lose the QB battle and sit the bench unless the other guy gets injured. Ideally, Sanchez won’t play a snap in 2013.
Joe Caporoso – SANCHEZ APOLOGIST ALERT – Starting for Jets and finishes with roughly 3,000 yards passing, 17 TDs, 16 INTs, and 57 completion percentage.
TJ Rosenthal – Comeback player of the year or surfing with Todd Marinovich by January 2014. One or the other.
Chris Gross – Benched by week 5 in favor of free agent signing or mid round rookie.
Mike Donnelly – Up and down, more 2011 than 2012, but it won’t be enough for him to keep the job in 2014. Also, he will be booed – a lot – no matter what he does.
Chris Celletti – Sanchez will win a battle with Tarvaris Jackson out of camp and be named the Jets starter. He’ll start every game in 2013, which will end up being his final year as both a Jet and as a starting QB in the NFL.
Steve Bateman – West Coast Offense fits him like a glove. Pacifies the crowd in the pre-season and records a QB Rating of 80.
Question – Rex Ryan: Dead Man Walking?
Evan Silva – Probably, unfortunately. The fact that Rex dragged such a talent-poor 2012 Jets team to six wins confirms that he is an effective coach. That was a two- or three-win roster, particularly after losing its best defender and receiver. New Jets GM John Idzik did not hire Rex and if you have any sense of NFL history, you know that approach rarely if ever pans out for the coach, long term. Perhaps Rex could buck the trend if he had a great team to work with, ripped off double-digit wins in 2013, and made himself impossible to fire. But it sure doesn’t look like that will be a possibility.
Joe Caporoso – As much as it hurts me to say this, Yes. Jets don’t make playoffs in 2013 and he gets fired.
TJ Rosenthal – No. Teflon Don. A modern day Wayne Fontes. He will survive 2013. His tattoo might not though.
Chris Gross – Make or break year for Rex. Needs playoff appearance or is out.
Mike Donnelly – No. Rex will have the team overachieve in 2013, largely because of his defense, and it will be hard to fire him after the season
Chris Celletti – I’ll put it this way: he better find a way to avoid a bad losing streak to end the season. A 6-10 record or less, or another late season collapse and he’s gone.
Steve Bateman – If it goes down the tubes and he handles the media weirdly again, then yes.
Question – Where does Tebow end up?
Evan Silva – I don’t think he’ll be in the NFL. I think the Jets will release Tebow, making him available for the fourth-year minimum salary. Tebow would probably be willing to play for the league minimum, but NFL teams will weigh the potential cost versus the potential reward and deem the potential reward not worth the cost. Because the cost includes a ridiculous amount of obsessive media coverage that can become a distraction for teams. New England would be the one club possibly willing to entertain Tebow because Josh McDaniels traded up for him in the 2010 draft and presumably still thinks Tebow can be an NFL asset. But I would still bet against the Patriots signing him.
Joe Caporoso – New England.
TJ Rosenthal – As a “Belichick-Back” for the Patriots and their goal line guy, or in the CFL. For what would be step one of the Doug Flutie five year resurrection plan, designed to prove people wrong.
Chris Gross – New England.
Mike Donnelly – I don’t care, as long as it’s not here. If I had to guess though, I’d say Chicago or New England.
Chris Celletti – I might be the only person in America who might say this publicly but I really don’t care. At all. That said, Oakland?
Steve Bateman – The Vatican.
Question – Vegas Odds on Jets making 2013-2014 Super Bowl?
Evan Silva – 150:1
TJ Rosenthal – The same as an alien life form landing in a UFO on Earth at any time before the big game. Whatever those odds may be. Show us above average QB play for a month straight, and we will start lowering that long shot percentage.
Chris Gross – 35/1
Mike Donnelly – Make it, like 25-1. Win it, 40-1
Chris Celletti – Bovada has them at 40/1. I would save my money.
Steve Bateman – Odder than odd.
Question – Which Veteran QB will Jets sign?
Evan Silva – My best guess is Matt Flynn. John Idzik was in Seattle when the Seahawks signed Flynn last offseason, and I expect him to be cheaper this time around. Flynn’s market was not strong in 2012, and his value only diminished when he failed to beat out Russell Wilson and got a year older riding the bench. The Seahawks will likely release Flynn because they want a backup with a skill set similar to Wilson’s. They’ve stated that publicly. Flynn is also a veteran of West Coast offenses, which is the scheme Marty Mornhinweg is installing with the Jets. My prediction is a three-year, $10.5 million contract and the Jets’ Week 1 starting job.
TJ Rosenthal – Probably Matt Moore or Tavaris Jackson. Pricey Matt Flynn intruiges us. Alex Smith is not what we want straight up for Revis, but we could see that deal happening for some reason. If none of those ideas work out hey, just call up Vinny Testaverde.
Chris Gross – Tavaris Jackson
Mike Donnelly – Tavaris Jackson.
Chris Celletti – Tarvaris Jackson. Who is infinitely worse than Mark Sanchez.
Steve Bateman – Matt Moore.
Question – LaRon Landry and Yeremiah Bell – Keep both?
Evan Silva – Keeping both is not an option. Landry wants big money and may get it from Buffalo or elsewhere. Keeping Bell is more realistic because he’s 35 years old, will be cheap to re-sign, and the Jets are strapped for salary cap space even if they release the players mentioned above. They have a ton of roster spots to fill with about $15 million in cap room. The vast majority of the Jets’ cap is still tied up in Mark Sanchez, David Harris, Santonio Holmes, Sione Pouha, the cornerbacks, Brick Ferguson, and Nick Mangold. And there are only four or so good, healthy players in that group.
Joe Caporoso – Keep Bell. Let Landry walk, don’t overpay for him. Not durable enough or consistent enough in pass coverage
TJ Rosenthal – We hope. Veteran smarts and hard hitters. Could cover up Kyle Wilson if Revis goes. Scary scenario.
Chris Gross – Can’t overpay Landry. Keep Bell at very low cost one year deal
Mike Donnelly – Keep both.
Chris Celletti – I would rather keep Landry, but Bell is the more realistic one to keep on an affordable one-year deal. The Jets have too many holes to bring back Landry at an escalated price.
Steve Bateman – Landry won fans over with style rather than substance last year – over-rated… let him walk. Bell was adequate and his experience will be important with the absence of players like Scott, Pace and Thomas. Bring him back.
Question – Dustin Keller – Keep or let walk?
Evan Silva – The Jets would ideally keep Keller, but he’s at the top of this year’s free-agent tight end class and will want more money than they can afford. He’s made it clear that he doesn’t want the franchise tag, and the Jets are in no position to withstand more player disharmony. They need to move on and hope someone gives Keller a big deal so the Jets can get a compensatory draft pick in 2014.
Joe Caporoso – Depends on contract demands. He will likely be franchised and traded
TJ Rosenthal – When I’m 90 in an elderly home, I’ll be wandering in the cafeteria muttering “gotta get Keller involved.” Rock paper scissors this one guys, I’m staying out of it.
Chris Gross – Franchise and trade.
Mike Donnelly – If the price is right, they should bring him back because he’d be a good fit in Mornhinweg’s system. I think they should let him walk, though.
Chris Celletti – Try to keep, if reasonable. Could be a huge weapon in Marty Mornhinweg’s offense. And has always been a security blanket for Sanchez.
Steve Bateman – Keep. On his day and with the right guy calling the plays he is Pro-Bowl caliber.
Question – Circus Tag – Fair Assessment or media driven?
Evan Silva – I think this was 60-percent media driven and 40-percent reality. The Butt Fumble. Annual Super Bowl guarantees. Foot fetishes. Tebow. Santonio Holmes. Hard Knocks. That Fireman Ed clown in the stands. “Sanchize.” Trading draft picks for mediocre veterans. Roster-quality delusions in the front office. That Caporoso goon blogging at Turn Off The Jets. There definitely were — and still are — components of a circus-like atmosphere surrounding the New York Jets, but the extent to which it has affected the on-field product is embellished by the media. I think the sheer shortage of talented players impacted the 2012 Jets much, much more than the “circus”, real or alleged.
Joe Caporoso – Combination of both but more media driven as of late
TJ Rosenthal – Both.
Chris Gross – Media driven for the most part, but surely some internal problems
leading to it.
Mike Donnelly – The Tebow trade never should have happened, but the whole circus thing was 100% media driven. There is no reason to cover a backup QB to such a degree.
Chris Celletti – Relatively fair assessment. There are some worse circuses in sports (Detroit Lions, current L.A. Lakers, A-Rod), but the Jets are up there.
Steve Bateman – Irrelevant.
Question – Shonn Greene ends up where next year and with how many yards?
Evan Silva – Shonn Greene is a No. 2 back-caliber talent and lacks versatility, which is problematic for a backup. He’s not going to help in the passing game, and he’s not going to help on special teams. Backup running backs need to do at least one of those things. I expect Greene will go unsigned in the first wave of free agency before accepting a one-year deal worth about $2 million as a supposed “committee” back. When the games begin, he’ll be phased out of the offense. If Steven Jackson declines his $7 million option in St. Louis, I’ll say Greene reunites with Brian Schottenheimer, loses a camp competition with Daryl Richardson and Isaiah Pead, and finishes with 80 carries for 275 yards.
Joe Caporoso – A backup on a run heavy team. He finishes with 400-600 yards
TJ Rosenthal – He’s a solid 10-12 carry guy somewhere, but not Jim Brown, as the Jets idiotically envisioned however. So, does anyone want to pay a high price for Greene? If the answer is no, he may be back in a lesser role.
Chris Gross – Detroit Lions, 657 yards.
Mike Donnelly – Colts, 1,100 yards.
Chris Celletti – St. Louis Rams: 730.
Steve Bateman – Atlanta. 500 yards (in 2 yard increments).
Question – The best skill position player on the Jets roster right now is?
Evan Silva – Jeremy Kerley.
Joe Caporoso – Jeremy Kerley. He holds the spot until Santonio Holmes proves he is healthy.
TJ Rosenthal – Santonio Holmes. Most explosive. Gives the offense the best chance to score from anywhere on the field.
Chris Gross – Jeremy Kerley.
Mike Donnelly – Santonio Holmes, with Jeremy Kerley a distant second.
Chris Celletti – Santonio Holmes and it’s not close.
Steve Bateman – Dustin Keller. Maybe it’ll only be after we let him go that people realize how good he is.
Question – Bring Braylon Edwards back?
Evan Silva – Sure. Why the heck not? No one else wants him, so Edwards will be cheap and the Jets should like cheap.
Joe Caporoso – Yes. Stephen Hill isn’t ready to be a full time player and Edwards looked serviceable in 3 games for Jets last year.
TJ Rosenthal – Yes. Just don’t expect the world from him stat wise. Appreciate his veteran presence and the fact that he actually likes being a Jet.
Chris Gross – Yes. Stephen Hill cannot be relied upon as a full time starter and
needs a mentor with a similar build.
Mike Donnelly – Without a doubt, yes.
Chris Celletti – I don’t see why not. The Jets could get him for cheap and is he acts up or anything, you just cut him. Low risk, high reward.
Steve Bateman – Yes. WCO needs crisp route runners and his attitude last year suggested he could mentor Hill.
Question – Stephen Hill’s 2013 Stat Line?
Evan Silva – 40/575/5.
Joe Caporoso – 30 catches, 480 yards, 4 TDs
TJ Rosenthal – 40-50 catches 700-800 yards, with 6-7 TDs. Any less is a hands issue. Any
more is an unexpected breakout year.
Chris Gross – 42 catches, 712 yards, 4 TDs.
Mike Donnelly – 42 catches, 675 yards, 7 TDs.
Chris Celletti – 40 receptions, 459 yards, 4 touchdowns.
Steve Bateman – 56 catches, 814 yards, 5 TDs.
Question – Marty Mornhinweg hiring: Good or Bad?
Evan Silva – I have no idea. Time will tell. No coach is good without good players. The Jets don’t have good players on offense, so Mornhinweg is facing an uphill battle to say the least.
TJ Rosenthal – OC’s get eaten up by Mark Sanchez. If Mornhinweg thinks he can win in New York solely by reprogramming Sanchez, he’s taking a big risk. He knows how to get offenses to score points but Sanchez too often has had the opposite effect. We can better answer this when we know who QB1 will be.
Chris Gross – Good. Jets need to move along from the prehistoric ground and pound.
Mike Donnelly – Very good. But then again, compared to Schottenheimer and Sparano, anybody would seem good by comparison.
Chris Celletti – Great. Personally, I’ve been waiting for the Jets to hire somebody who has a track record of success in the role the team hired them for. Mornhinweg has that.
Steve Bateman – Good. But not as good as Cam Cameron.
Question – Ryan Matthews 2013 Stat Line and on what team?
Evan Silva – This is weird. A Chargers question? Random. 145 carries, 610 yards, three touchdowns. 35 catches for 280 yards, and one more touchdown. He’ll stay in San Diego.
Joe Caporoso – He stays with San Diego and finishes with 800-900 rushing yards.
TJ Rosenthal – Hopefully my fantasy team during his brief hot streak. The Jets are dying for a feature back with speed and durability. Matthews scares us though. He gets hurt too much to hope for more than a four game fantasy tear out of him.
Chris Gross – San Diego Chargers. 165 carries, 748 yards, 5 touchdowns.
Mike Donnelly – Better question is where will he be drafted in fantasy football? Probably not 2nd overall. He’ll be back with the Chargers probably – 12 games, 1100 total yards, 5 TDs.
Chris Celletti – 489 yards rushing, 202 receiving, 4 total TDs on the Green Bay Packers.
Steve Bateman – Stays at San Diego and becomes an injured irrelevance.
Question – Top 3 overpaid free agents in coming months?
Evan Silva – 1) Jake Long 2) Cary Williams 3) Connor Barwin.
Joe Caporoso – Alex Smith. Jake Long. Jermichael Finley.
TJ Rosenthal – Darrelle Revis, Joe Flacco and a tie between Mike Wallace and Wes Welker.
Chris Gross – Alex Smith. Anthony Spencer. Reggie Bush.
Mike Donnelly – Mike Wallace, Dwayne Bowe, Anthony Spencer.
Chris Celletti – Joe Flacco, Ahmad Bradshaw, LaRon Landry
Steve Bateman – Alex Smith. Matt Flynn. Jermichael Finley.
Question – Worst NFL prediction you have ever made?
Evan Silva – I predicted that the Jets would start the 2012 season 1-4. They started 2-3.
Joe Caporoso – Aaron Maybin having 10 sacks last year.
TJ Rosenthal – That the Jets would win a Super Bowl in my lifetime. Nowadays I fear that at some point I may need to sign up to be frozen like Ted Williams to insure a better shot of being right.
Chris Gross – Mark Sanchez silencing his critics in 2012.
Mike Donnelly – That Russell Wilson would suck.
Chris Celletti – That the Saints would make a deep run without Sean Payton.
Steve Bateman – Stephen Hill would adapt to NFL quickly.
Question – Top three quarterbacks in 2013 Draft?
Evan Silva – 1) Geno Smith 2) Tyler Wilson 3) Mike Glennon.
Joe Caporoso – Geno Smith. Mike Glennon. EJ Manuel.
TJ Rosenthal – Not sure, but we are all for drafting one late. After the top three are off the board.
Chris Gross – Geno Smith. Matt Barkley. EJ Manuel.
Mike Donnelly – Smith, Glennon, Wilson, but I wouldn’t take any of them in the 1st round
Chris Celletti – Geno Smith, Matt Barkley, Ryan Nassib.
Steve Bateman – Glennon. Barkley. Nassib.
Question – Best overall player in 2013 Draft?
Evan Silva – Chance Warmack.
Joe Caporoso – Chance Warmack
TJ Rosenthal – Kyle Brady. Because with the Jets, it’s always a Kyle Brady in some form or other, isn’t it? No matter what year it is. Sorry, we’re draft scarred and in need of a coffee. Dangerous combo.
Mike Donnelly – Probably one of the offensive linemen, Warmack or Joeckel. On defense, Moore or Lotulelei.
Chris Celletti – Geno Smith.
Steve Bateman – Chance Warmack.