Turn On The Jets Offensive Film Breakdown – Jets vs. Steelers

Breaking down the offensive game film from Jets/Steelers

Turn On The Jets broke down the offensive game film from the New York Jets week two loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. A big thank you to everybody who sent in their questions on Twitter on what they specifically wanted to see broken down from the film. Make sure to check back tomorrow when Chris Gross will go through the defensive game tape –

Let’s start with something positive, since the bulk of this article is going to be a negative review of Santonio Holmes, Shonn Greene, Mark Sanchez, and Jeff Cumberland. The New York Jets opening drive on offense was a thing of beauty. Mark Sanchez was accurate and aggressive, hitting Jeremy Kerley on a 45 yard completion on a well-designed play by Tony Sparano and a beautiful, shifty route from Kerley. The touchdown to Santonio Holmes took advantage of the Jets being so run heavy in their three tight end look that Sanchez’s well-executed play action held up both linebackers and brought the free safety towards the line to stop the run. This opened a huge window to Holmes for an easy touchdown. Great tendency breaking play-call by Tony Sparano.

Unfortunately after a strong start from Holmes, he grew impatient with Pittsburgh’s aggressive, physical coverage. He showed no ability to respond to it and terrible releases and overall route-running technique. On a key third down early in the game, Sanchez was keying on him to run a whip route (similar to an out, but when you run a slant, plant your inside foot and work back to the outside), however as Sanchez rolled right, Holmes slammed into a linebacker and falls over instead of releasing to the outside. With Holmes on the ground, Sanchez ended up taking a huge shot from Lawrence Timmons after throwing it away.

Later in the game, Holmes and Sanchez again struggled to connect on a third down. Last week on a nearly identical play, we praised Sanchez for being patient and hitting Jeff Cumberland on a 3rd and 9 instead of hitting Dustin Keller in the flat. However, here on 3rd and 16 and considering the Jets field position and complete lack of offensive productivity (this play took place midway through the 3rd quarter), he should have taken Kerley in the flat. Why? It either sets up a long field goal attempt, gives you a chance to go for it on 4th and roughly 6 or maybe Kerley makes a guy miss and gets a first down.

Regardless, Sanchez decides to wait for Holmes to reach the first down marker. Unfortunately, Holmes rounds off the top of his route. Instead of driving off Ike Taylor by threatening him deep, he rounds it off too early and doesn’t make a sharp cut back to the quarterback. This doesn’t move Taylor at all who squatted on the route and easily knocked the ball down.

Later in the game, Sanchez went to Holmes on a 2nd and 10 on a hitch route. Again, instead of driving his defender off, Holmes just slams into him and looks to push off. This disrupts the timing and it is why when he turned around, he wasn’t prepared to catch the ball which he dropped.

What I have seen through two games of Santonio Holmes this season is lazy route running, poor communication with his quarterback and endless complaining to the official to bail out his poor play. I have defended Holmes time and time again on this site, however so far this season he looks like a player who received a big contract and stopped working on the little things that make wide receivers great. When you watch players like Hakeem Nicks or Victor Cruz in the early game and then watch Holmes, the dropoff is enormous. Here is Holmes staring down an official after he dropped yet another pass (and there was no pass interference) while childishly trapping Ike Taylor’s feet between his legs. Taylor flipped out screaming at Holmes after this play for how long he held him there.

Moving on to Shonn Greene and the problems in the Jets running game. Here we see a well-blocked play and instead of Greene hitting the hole at full speed, he comes to a complete stop behind the of scrimmage and squats extremely low to the point of stumbling…again. This went for 3 yards and easily could have been a 7-9 yard again.

Later in the game, Greene had a monster hole on a well designed play by Tony Sparano. The Jets came out in a wishbone look and gave Greene a delayed draw. He literally goes untouched for 8 yards through the Pittsburgh defense, as you can see from both angles here. He has one person to beat, safety Ryan Mundy who steps up to fill. This is where it is a running back’s job to make the safety miss and score a touchdown.

What does Greene do? He squats as low as he can, starts stumbling and basically gives himself a concussion by getting smacked by Mundy for exactly a 9 yard gain. So basically Greene didn’t receive any contact until 8 yards down the field and finished with a 9 yard gain…not good enough.

There was a clear contrast between Bilal Powell and Greene in this game. Simply put, Powell looked quicker, more explosive and showed more of an ability to make people miss. On this play, Lawrence Timmons shoots through the gap unblocked and has a clear shot at Powell. If this is Greene, it is without question a 3 yard loss. However, Powell was fast enough to beat him through the hole and turn this into a 5 yard gain.

Later in the game, Powell should have had a 34 yard touchdown run. This play was well blocked up front and Powell made a great cutback. All it took was Jeff Cumberland sealing his man and he would have been off to the races. Unfortunately, Cumberland whiffed and the run only went for 10 yards. This is what happens when you have limited depth at tight end and don’t have a player who can block at the position.

Cumberland also showed no awareness on a hot route in the second quarter. If he read the defense properly, the Jets easily convert a 3rd down and don’t have to settle for a field goal.

A few other observations –

  • Austin Howard and the pass protection held up relatively well in this game. He did allow one sack but could have received more help from Shonn Greene on a chip block. Greene struggled in pass protection throughout this entire game.
  • Tony Sparano called a terrific first half. The Jets should have had an easy touchdown to Santonio Holmes in the end-zone to take a 14-6 lead. They rolled Sanchez out, got the coverage they wanted, Santonio Holmes ran a beautiful double move but Sanchez threw it high and behind him instead of out in front. Rob detailed this play here yesterday and it was a killer miss by Sanchez.
  • The deep ball to Stephen was another clever play call and a beautiful throw from Sanchez. Ultimately, it was just played very well by Ryan Clark. It is hard to put blame on anybody on this play. Hill probably could have ran a crisper route and he did struggle to get off press coverage all day…leading to Sanchez not looking his way very often.
  • Sparano got a little too conservative in the second half but his receivers weren’t helping the cause by getting pushed around so easily.
  • The 12 yard run by Joe McKnight was very impressive. There was nothing there and he broke a tackle, made two guys miss and showed good acceleration. It is time for more McKnight, Powell and yes Tebow running the ball. Shonn Greene doesn’t merit more than 15 carries per game at this point.

Sanchez Breakdown: Jets Offense Grounded in Pittsburgh

Rob Celletti breaks down Mark Sanchez’s performance against the Pittsburgh Steelers in week 2

Stat Line: – 10/27, 138 Yards, 1 touchdown, 0 interceptions – 66.6 QB rating, 37.0 completion percentage (yikes)

Season Stat Line – 29/54, 404 yards, 4 touchdowns, 1 interception – 95 QB Rating, 53.7 completion percentage

To put it as simply as possible, two good drives are never going to be enough to win an NFL game. Ditto, just two trips to the red zone, as illustrated in this fancy graphic that all the stat-heads out there will surely enjoy. The Jets had issues in all three phases of the game, and the issues on offense weren’t only a function of poor quarterback play, but this is the place we discuss Mark Sanchez, so discuss him we will.

The Best: The first drive seemed to be a continuation of the week 1 success against the Buffalo Bills. This is what I expected the Jets to do most of the game to a Pittsburgh defense that was missing two of its impact players.  Sanchez and company responded to Pittsburgh’s opening drive field goal by marching right down the field, keyed by a big 45 yard hook-up with Jeremy Kerley where Sanchez again utilized a pump-fake to send Ryan Clark the wrong way before dropping a perfect, in-stride ball over three Steelers defenders for the big gain. Three plays later, a deft play-action fake and easy pickings on a quick slant to Santonio Holmes had the Jets up 7-3.

The Worst: Pretty much everything after the first drive was troublesome.  All of a sudden, Sanchez was out of synch with his receiving corps. Notable miscues happened with Jeff Cumberland and Jeremy Kerley, and after a solid opening drive, Santonio Holmes dropped a slew of catchable passes and in the end caught just three of the 11 balls thrown his way. The chemistry issues between Holmes and Sanchez have been discussed at length, but they’re worth noting again here. This is simply something that must be solved in order for the Jets to have a successful 2012 season. For better or worse, Holmes is the most experienced playmaker the Jets have, and if he and Sanchez aren’t on the same page, the offense will continue to sputter.

After the first drive, Sanchez completed just 6 of his next 22 passes (that’s 27.2%, for those of you scoring at home). The Jets did not enter the red zone after their second drive (they got to the 19 yard line), coming closest on their final, garbage time drive which ended at Pittsburgh’s 30 yard line. Sanchez also took some legitimate hits (including a rightly-penalized blow to the head), which was to be expected against Dick LeBeau’s defense. While I don’t think he was ever downright skittish, it’s clear that Sanchez was less decisive with the ball as the game wore on and Pittsburgh’s defense asserted itself.

The Key Moment: While I would love to harp on the Jets’ lack of aggressiveness at the end of the first half, I’ll keep the discussion to Sanchez, who said after the game that running the clock out was ultimately Tony Sparano’s decision.  A colleague of mine pointed out that after Sanchez missed Holmes for a would-be touchdown on the Jets second drive, everything seemed to stall out thereafter. It’s a good point. Watching the play again, it’s a terrific play-call on 1st and 10 from the 24, and the execution is there until the throw.  Sanchez playfakes, then bootlegs to the outside, which pulls Ryan Clark up the field. Santonio Holmes gets separation from Ike Taylor and runs into a fully vacated Pittsburgh endzone.  If Sanchez lays the ball out in front of Holmes, it’s an easy touchdown the Jets grab a 14-6 lead. Instead, the throw is high and a little behind #10, and the Jets settle for the three points that would be their last of the game. Sanchez has always been praised for his ability to throw on the run, and this play put him in his sweet spot, but the quarterback simply didn’t make the throw.

So now the question is, how will Mark Sanchez respond?  The Jets return to the place where their 2011 season officially and mercilessly went up in flames. Sanchez has a spotty history and just a 2-4 career record vs. Miami. Intriguing times ahead for the Jets’ quarterback.

New York Jets Week 2 Report Card – Failing Effort

The grade report for the New York Jets week 2 game against the Pittsburgh Steelers

Quarterbacks (C) – Mark Sanchez came out of the gates on fire, completing 4 of his 5 first passes for 80 yards and a touchdown. After that, the passing offense went into the tank as he finished an ugly 10/27 for 138 yards. He misfired on a few passes down the field and didn’t seem to be on the same page as his receivers. He wasn’t helped by dropped passes, poor route running and a nonexistent running game but overall this was a disappointing effort.

Tim Tebow had an impressive 22 yard run and sadly might be the best running back this team has right now. I’d rather watch 20 Wildcat runs than 20 2 yard Shonn Greene runs at this point.

Running Backs (D) – Shonn Greene finished up with 11 carries for 23 yards. If you take away his one 9 yard run. He had 10 carries for 14 yards. He also added in a holding penalty and a whiffed block in pass protection for good measure. We are two games into the season and Greene has 38 carries for 117 yards with 1 run for over 10 yards…not even close to good enough. The blame doesn’t fall on the offensive line, Greene doesn’t have the speed to get to the edge and can’t break through to the second level when holes are actually there.

The only reason this isn’t an F is because Bilal Powell showed some elusiveness on a 10 yard run and finished with 3.7 yards per carry which looks great next to Greene’s 3.0 on the season. Joe McKnight also had a nice 12 yard run where be broke a few tackles and made a defender miss…perhaps it is time to give him and Powell a longer look.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends (F) – I will go into this in more detail during our film breakdown but Santonio Holmes was awful yesterday. He spent the entire game whining at the officials, dropping passes and running lazy routes that lacked any measure of the needed preciseness from a number one receiver. Stephen Hill struggled with the Steelers physical coverage. Jeremy Kerley provided a big play with a 45 yard reception but was absent besides it.

Jeff Cumberland missed a hot read that could have converted a first down and didn’t provide anything in the passing game. The Jets really missed Dustin Keller in this one.

Defensive Line (C) – The run defense was terrific as expected, led by Muhammad Wilkerson and Sione Pouha. Yet, the lack of a pass rush was frustrating to see. Quinton Coples is barely on the field and when he has been looks completely lost. Outside of a sack when Ben Roethlisnberger slid behind the line of scrimmage, the defensive line didn’t touch him once.

Linebackers (C) – Way too many missed tackles. David Harris missed two opportunities for a sack. Calvin Pace was nowhere near the quarterback. Garret McIntyre of all people had the game of his life, finishing with 2 sacks, 4 tackles for a loss and 7 tackles. He should become a regular part of the defense moving forward, which means less Bryan Thomas and Aaron Maybin…who has been invisible so far this year.

Secondary (F) – They get a “F” just because of how putrid Antonio Cromartie was on Mike Wallace’s touchdown. What a lazy play that completely lacked any football awareness. LaRon Landry picked up two personal fouls and Kyle Wilson was average at best. Let’s hope Revis is back next week.

Special Teams (D) – Jeremy Kerley’s muffed punt was a killer in the second half. Isaiah Trufant should have downed a punt at the 1 yard line but inexplicably let himself land in the end-zone with the ball. Nick Folk hit his only field goal attempt.

Coaching (D) – Tony Sparano had no counter move when Dick LeBeau adjusted after the Jets first couple of drives. Rex was too conservative at the end of the half and admitted the team had a sloppy/sluggish week of practice. They better be ready to turn it up this week because if they slip up against Miami, 1-2 heading into back to back games against San Francisco and Houston isn’t going to be pretty.

No Huddle – New York Jets Ugly Loss Edition

TJ Rosenthal goes No Huddle on the New York Jets 27-10 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers

Sure. Okay. We’ll admit it. This loss hurt. The ghosts of the AFC championship defeat were there for us and we will assume many other diehards as we watched. Many of us would have loved nothing more than having Mike Tomlin exit at 0-2.

A little payback.

That said, the Jets are 1-1, in a four way tie for first in the AFC East, and nowhere near any panic buttons that many thought they’d be pressing before heading down to Miami.

Here’s a quick look back on yesterday. A day we are disappointed about, but won’t be dwelling on for much longer.

1 – Why Can’t The Jets Tackle Ben?

Hey, Ben Rothliesberger is tough to bring down. Period. That’s why. Everyone knows that. Sunday, the Jets defense being unable to get to Ben when they had open lanes on blitzes, led to big results for Pittsburgh downfield. Being able to bring Big Ben down might have gotten the D off the field and kept the game within a score. That didn’t happen. Making it an uphill battle for the entire second half. To us this was the key issue all day.

2 -The Backbreaking Wallace TD.

The Jets were down 13-10 at halftime, and trying to tread water early in the third quarter, long enough in order to get back on track offensively. Then Mike Wallace grabbed what could have been a jump ball in the end zone. One that Antonio Cromartie foolishly overran. Even so, Wallace must have been in bounds by a blade of grass. A booth review that viewers never got a good look at to boot.

That odd play left the Jets no room for error at 20-10. Soon enough, the Steelers power running game began to roll downhill. This moment, this 50/50 ball, even with the Jets struggles on third down, and problems tackling later in the second half, is what really gave Pittsburgh control of the game.

3 – Landry’s Penalties Hurt, But We Like His Style And Aggression.

S Laron Landry had a late hit and a horse collar. Penalties that led to scores. On the flip side, the Jets new hard hitting safety is also establishing his turf and in the long run, this will bode well for the defense. The penalties hurt but we can live with them, knowing that Landry will do alot more good than bad this year. His style was sorely needed.

4 – Why Did The Jets Offense Come To A Halt? Greene Got Woozy and The Receivers Missed Their Few Shots

Shonn Greene was running with a great first step early on, and the Jets offense seemed like it was again ready to have a good day, until his head injury slowed him and the unit down. This changed the balance and overall rythym of the offense.

The young receivers failed to establish their size, and speed in space on a potentially big plays too. You hit on them you score fast. Not today. Rookie Stephen Hill got outmuscled downfield deep in a one on one matchup in the first half. Jeremy Kerley was over the middle and had a shot at a big play but seemed to cut his route short on a throw that Sanchez let loose deeper, thinking Kerley was going to head down the seem.

TE Jeff Cumberland misread a hot route that could have been a red zone first down, that instead led to just a FG.

There were also some drops.

Dustin Keller being out certainly didn’t help. With the choice to go with youth at WR though, even with Keller, these days will happen for Sanjay Lal’s corps in 2012. Hopefully less often than the ones that gave us the makings of that opening day explosion last week against the Bills.

5 – Hate To Say It, But Turn The Page On This One

The Jets are in a way four way tie in the AFC East with stars Darrelle Revis and Dustin Keller on the mend. Facing a rookie QB next week.

Things could be alot worse.

The Steelers game felt like it slipped and slithered away no doubt, but so many had the Jets 0-2 and desperately two games back by now. Instead they are still in position to accomplish their goals. Bite your tongues folks. Grin and bear it. Move on and get ready for a huge game in Miami, knowing that San Fran and Houston are waiting.

Does Sunday at Heinz leave a bad taste in the mouth? Sure. Is the “L” devastating? No. In fact it’s already time to move on and get ready for the Fish.

Instant Reaction – Disappointing Jets Fall To 1-1

The New York Jets laid an egg in Pittsburgh to drop their record to 1-1

It was going to be a tall order for the New York Jets in Pittsburgh, against a desperate 0-1 team particularly without Darrelle Revis, Dustin Keller and Bryan Thomas in the line-up. However, there are no excuses for how the Jets lost today. Dropped passes. Muffed punts. Porous tackling. Questionable coaching decisions. The game was there for the taking and the Jets put forth a sloppy, borderline embarrassing effort.

On offense the Jets got off a fast start but eventually fizzled thanks to a lack of a running game and dropped passes. Shonn Greene had 11 carries for 23 yards and again made nobody miss and broke no tackles. On the eye test Bilal Powell looked better when carrying the football and yes, the Jets should have turned to Tim Tebow more frequently as a rushing option. Greene isn’t good enough not be a supported by another option or two. Santonio Holmes spent the entire game whining to the officials and dropping catchable passes. Stephen Hill wasn’t involved in the offense at all and the Jets badly missed Dustin Keller, as Jeff Cumberland looked clueless at times. Mark Sanchez missed a few opportunities down the field and couldn’t get the offense in rhythm after the first quarter.

On defense, the tackling was awful. Rex Ryan consistently dialed up the proper blitz call but watch LaRon Landry and David Harris whiff on sacks. Landry also picked up a pair of personal fouls. It was frustrating to watch the Jets inability to bring Ben Roethlisberger down. Quinton Coples barely played. Aaron Maybin was invisible. Where is the pass rush going to come from? Antonio Cromartie looked lost on Mike Wallace’s touchdown and Kyle Wilson didn’t impress in extended duty.

Look, the Jets weren’t going 16-0. There are worse places to lose than on the road in Pittsburgh…like at home to Arizona for example. The entire AFC East is 1-1 and the Jets are 1-o in their division. They need to handle business in Miami next week before facing a pair of brutally tough games at home against San Francisco and Houston. In order to do that, they must find a running game and have their playmakers actually make plays.

Turn On The Jets Week 2 Roundtable – Jets vs. Steelers Predictions

The Turn On The Jets staff gives their predictions for Jets vs. Steelers

The TOJ Staff with their predictions for Jets/Steelers 

Joe Caporoso – 12 Pack

Chris Gross – Jets 24, Steelers 17 – Since I couldn’t have been more off with my prediction last week, it’s only fitting I deliver a prediction of redemption. With so many key players, for both teams, sitting out this week, it is extremely difficult to gage where this game will go. Kyle Wilson, who will be starting opposite Antonio Cromartie with Darrelle Revis out, has a huge opportunity to prove that the Jets can rely on him to play well consistently. Wilson will likely be matched up with Antonio Brown, who has become one of Ben Roethlisberger’s favorite targets over the past year, and will certainly have his hands full. Brown has big play ability and consistently finds holes in coverage to make key grabs and keep the chains moving for Pittsburgh. Wilson has a huge task at hand, but should be excited about the opportunity to prove himself.

Pittsburgh has a below average offensive line, one that gave up five sacks to Denver last week. Expect the Jets to get to Big Ben on more than one occasion. Look for Muhammed Wilkerson, Calvin Pace, and possibly Quinton Coples to all register sacks this week. With Rashard Mendenhall out for Pittsburgh again, the Steelers will likely turn to their stable of less than average running backs, all of whom the Jets will shut down early. Look for Pittsburgh Offensive Coordinator Todd Haley to start airing it out by the second quarter, leading to 1-2 interceptions by Ben Roethlisberger.
Offensively, the Jets will look to keep that fire from Buffalo burning, especially with Pittsburgh’s two best defensive players, James Harrison and Troy Polamalu, also out with injuries. New York will try to get the run game going, but with Shonn Greene average under 4 YPC, Sparano will likely let Sanchez take control and look to get Stephen Hill, Santonio Holmes, and Jeremy Kerley the ball in space. Ultimately, this game could come down to the final possession, one that has a Sanchez game winning drive written all over it, a phenomenal way to enter Miami week with San Francisco and Houston looming afterwards.

Rob Celletti – As exhilarating as week one was, it was just that: week one. I’m an optimist (I picked the Jets to win 10 games this year, after all), but I also don’t want to start drinking the Kool-aid just because the Jets walloped a suspect football team with a mediocre quarterback at home. Sunday’s game will be a battle. Pittsburgh is a quality football team, and even though they’re banged up, I expect a motivated Steelers side that will be anxious to wash the taste of their opening week loss out of their mouths. It will be a hard-fought game in which both teams will play well.  The Jets won’t have such an easy time throwing the ball, but Sanchez will put up representative numbers. He’ll also get sacked in key spots by a Pittsburgh defense that will be more creative and active than Buffalo. Also, remember, the Jets put the ball on the ground three times against the Bills and Sanchez was intercepted once.  If they make mistakes like that in this game, Pittsburgh will capitalize.  In the end, an even game comes down to the final possession, and Pittsburgh does enough to win, 24-21.

Chris Celletti – Most people probably think this is going to be a knock down, drag ’em out kind of game. I think both teams will look and say “Hey, their best defensive player is out, let’s take a few shots here” (as long as Troy Polamalu and/or James Harrison don’t play, with Darrelle Revis already ruled out), and we could be in for a more high scoring affair than most people think. I don’t think the Steelers are nearly as tough as we’re used to them being, which isn’t to say that they’re not good. They’re still good, but in a different way with a more dynamic offense led by three very good receivers. Mark Sanchez will have more success through the air, while Shonn Greene will continue to find a way to gain three yards, no more or less, on literally every play. The game will come down to wire, with maybe a big special teams play deciding things. In a bit of an upset I’ll take Jets 31, Steelers 27

Mike Donnelly – This game is going to be a much tougher test than last week against the paper champion Buffalo Bills. The Steelers are not the powerhouse team they were a few years ago, and they’ll be without mainstays James Harrison, Troy Polamalu, and Rashard Mendenhall, but they’re still a formidable opponent — especially at Heinz Field. The Jets will be without Darrelle Revis of course as well, which is a major blow, bit I expect the defense to exploit he Steelers Swiss cheese offensive line and make up for the absence of #24, pulling out a nail biter late in the 4th quarter 23-20.

Turn On The Jets Week 2 NFL Picks

The TOJ staff submits their picks for week 2 of the NFL season….the race for steak continues

The TOJ week 1 NFL staff picks left us looking like the NFC West circa a few years ago. The Race For Steak is off to a slow start but that doesn’t mean we aren’t ready for a strong bounce back in week 2. Make sure to give everybody a follow Twitter and make sure to check out Session 73 for this great deal brought to you by our partners at Night Out. On to the picks –

CURRENT STANDINGS

1. Mike “Down With Silva” Donnelly (9-8)

2. Chris “I Still Bet On Boxing” Celletti (8-9)

3. Rob “Down With Bettman” Celletti (7-10)

4. Chris “Creatine” Gross (7-10)

5. Joe “Still Handsome” Caporoso (6-11)

Joe Caporoso

Season Record: 6-11

  • Giants (-7) vs. Tampa Bay
  • New England (-13.5) vs. Arizona
  • Minnesota (-2) vs. Indiannapolis
  • New Orleans (-2.5) vs. Carolina
  • Kansas City (+3) vs. Buffalo
  • Baltimore (+2.5) vs. Philadelphia
  • Oakland (-3) vs. Miami
  • Cincinnati (-7) vs. Brandon Weeden Is Awful
  • Houston (-7) vs. Jacksonville
  • Seattle (+3.5) vs. Dallas
  • Washington (-3) vs. St. Louis
  • Jets (+5) vs. Pittsburgh
  • Tennessee (+6.5) vs. San Diego
  • San Francisco (-6.5) vs. Detroit
  • Atlanta (-3) vs. Denver

Mike Donnelly

Season Record: 9-8

  • NYG -7
  • NE -13.5
  • Minn -3
  • Car +3
  • KC +3
  • Phi -2.5
  • Mia +2
  • Cle +7
  • Jax +7
  • Sea +3.5
  • StL +3.5
  • NYJ +5
  • Tenn +7
  • SF -6.5
  • Atl -3

Chris Celletti

Season Record: 8-9

  • Giants -7
  • Pats -13
  • Colts +3
  • Panthers +2.5
  • Chiefs +3
  • Ravens +2.5
  • Raiders -2
  • Bengals -7
  • Texans -7
  • Cowboys -3.5
  • Redskins -3.5
  • Jets +5.5
  • Titans +7
  • Niners -7
  • Broncos +3

Rob Celletti

Season Record: 7-10

  • Giants (-7) over Buccaneers
  • Patriots (-13.5) over Cardinals
  • Colts (+1.5) over Vikings
  • Saints (-2.5) over Panthers
  • Bills (-3) over Chiefs
  • Ravens (+2.5) over Eagles
  • Dolphins (+3) over Raiders
  • Bengals (-7) over Browns
  • Texans (-7) over Jaguars
  • Cowboys (-3) over Seahawks
  • Redskins (-3) over Rams
  • Jets (+4.5) over Steelers
  • Chargers (-6.5) over Titans
  • 49ers (-7) over Lions
  • Broncos (+3) over Falcons

Chris Gross

Season Record: 7-10

  • Giants
  • Cardinals
  • Colts
  • Saints
  • Chiefs
  • Ravens
  • Oakland
  • Bengals
  • Texans
  • Cowboys
  • Redskins
  • Jets
  • Titans
  • 49ers
  • Broncos

Turn On The Jets – NFL Week 2 Best Bets

Chris Celletti with his Best Bets for week 2 of the NFL Season

Week 1 Record: 1-2

Season Record: 1-2

I’m actually okay with going just 1-2 last week. It was your typical Week 1 craziness…the Eagles barely beat the Browns, the Saints lost badly at the Superdome, and that team in Green and White put up 48 points against everybody’s preseason darlings. Week 1 is impossible to predict. Now, it’s not like in Week 2 we know exactly what every team is like yet, but at least we have something to work off of other than preseason, which has once again been proven to be a total waste of time and worth almost zero attention.

As I look at the Week 2 schedule, it’s perfect for gambling because there are a lot of crappy games. No one outside of Ohio would voluntarily watch Bengals/Browns. The same can be said for Dolphins/Raiders and Bills/Chiefs unless you’ve been dealt the horrible hand of being a fan of one of those franchises, so naturally, I didn’t choose any of those games in my Week 2 bets. Even money isn’t worth sitting through that crap. — Here is where you will be betting on Top Bet in the NFL

Giants (-7) vs. Buccaneers

Much like the Packers at Lambeau on Thursday, the Giants return home after a tough opening season loss and are not going to fall to 0-2. I have never been a member of the Josh Freeman fan club, and don’t think I ever will be. The Giants’ d-line should be ticked off and will take it out on him. Plus, I really, really don’t want to see Greg Schiano return to New Jersey and score a big win, because Peter King and Harvey Araton will write  a combined 7,559 insufferable words about it on Monday. I don’t want that, and neither does Eli Manning. Giants, big.

Colts (+2) vs. Vikings

Blaine Gabbert threw for 260 yards against the Vikings last week again. Read that sentence again. Now put your money on the Colts and Andrew Luck at home.

Texans (-7) at Jaguars

Is this the halftime line? I know the Jaguars are at home and have a decent enough run defense to  keep the Texans’ running game in check, but how many points can Gabbert and Co. (that sounds like midwestern insurance company or something) score against the Texans? I’m not convinced they can put up 10 points all day and if that’s the case, the Texans only need a solid 20-24 to cover this spread.

Bonus Non-Football Bet Of The Week (Record, 0-1)

Not that anybody watched, but I was wrong about last week’s non-football bonus bet, as Andre Ward totally dismantled Chad Dawson in a 10th round TKO. Andre Ward is a name worth keeping tabs on though, because as Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather start to fade off in the boxing superstar sunset, Ward is the most likely guy to take over the throne.

This week I move to baseball. Is there anything more sure in sports these days than the New York Mets being a total waste of space? This is not exactly bold, but the Brewers are currently at -240 to win the weekend series between the two. Isn’t this free money?

Turn On The Jets 12 Pack, Week 2 – Jets vs. Steelers

12 predictions for the New York Jets week 2 match-up against the Pittsburgh Steelers

The 12 Pack is back for another week of likely incorrect predictions about the upcoming New York Jets game. Make sure you check back tomorrow for our TOJ Roundtable picks for the game and the ongoing Race For Steak. In case you haven’t heard yet, the following players are OUT for the game on Sunday: Darrelle Revis, Dustin Keller, Bryan Thomas, James Harrison, Troy Polamalu, Rashard Mendenhall…so yea, no big names or anything. 

Make sure to check out our deal of the week with Night Out $30 for unlimited beer and appetizers at Session 73. The TOJ staff should be in the building, will you be? 

1. We have discussed at length the problems Emmanuel Sanders and Heath Miller could cause for the Jets, those problems are only magnified now by Ellis Lankster playing nickelback and Isaiah Trufant playing in the dime. Kyle Wilson will likely spend most of the game covering Antonio Brown, a match-up Ben Roethlisberger will likely exploit and Antonio Cromartie will be on Mike Wallace. Pittsburgh is going to rack up a ton of passing yards, the question is can the Jets defense bend but not break? Roethlisberger should be good for at least 260 yards through the air on Sunday.

2. The Jets pass rush is going to break through against a suspect Pittsburgh offensive line. Todd Haley is going to get pass happy and while they will get their yards, it will also come at the cost of a few sacks. Look for Quinton Coples to record his first NFL sack and for Aaron Maybin to get on the board as well.

3. Mark Sanchez is going to play another good game in what will turn out to be a very good season for him. The Jets will pick on Keenan Lewis and Ryan Mundy and won’t be shy about attacking down the field with Santonio Holmes, Stephen Hill or Jeremy Kerley. Sanchez will be good for 20+ completions and 225+ yards.

4. Shonn Greene will have 18-22 carries and finish with under 100 yards.

5. Tim Tebow will be more effective in the Wildcat this week than he was last week. He will compete his first pass of the season and run for 25-35 yards.

6. Jonathan Dwyer will be Pittsburgh’s leading rusher and finish with 50-55 yards. Pittsburgh will abandon the running game fairly early in this one.

7. Santonio Holmes will score his first touchdown of the season and it will come on a completion of over 20 yards.

8. Mark Sanchez will be sacked 2 or 3 times on Sunday. However, he will not have any turnovers this week.

9. Garret McIntyre will have a rough game in the starting line-up for Bryan Thomas. Pittsburgh will attack him in both the rushing and passing game with a good amount of success.

10. Bilal Powell will have a bigger role in the game-plan than he did last week.

11. Antonio Cromartie will have his second interception of the season.

12. This is going to be a somewhat high scoring game that will be tight all the way throughout. This one will be decided in the final 3-4 minutes. Unfortunately this is the time for my yearly disclaimer that I can’t pick the Jets to go 16-0. Yes, this is a very winnable game. However, I think Pittsburgh does enough and puts it away late for a 27-24 victory.

New York Jets – 2012: The Year of the Sanchize

Mike Donnelly on why the absence of Brian Schottenheimer will mean a career year for Mark Sanchez

Since Sunday’s offensive explosion against the Bills, I have seen many different reactions from media experts, Jets fans, Jets haters, and everyone in between (except Evan Silva, of course, who must have had far too much egg on his face to give his take on the game) in regard to the Jets offense, and Mark Sanchez in particular. Some have expressed shock, while others felt somewhat vindicated after believing in the Sanchize all along. The overriding question from everyone, though, is can Sanchez keep this going? Well, not only is he is going to keep it going and mature into the franchise quarterback many expected him to be, I’m going to show you why the writing was all over the wall heading into this season, and we should have expected a big year. I can tell you why that is the case in two simple words:

Brian. Schottenheimer.

Yes, it’s easy (and fun) to take shots at the incompetent former Jets offensive coordinator, but there is good reason for that. When you look back at his coaching career, the thing that sticks out like a sore thumb is the lack of development and overall production amongst the quarterbacks he works with. Don’t believe me? Check it out:

2001 – Brian’s dad, Marty, brought him on as the QB coach for his final season in Washington. The quarterbacks that season combined to throw for 13 touchdowns, complete 54% of their passes, and compile a 71.1 quarterback rating. NOT BAD!

2002-2005 – Brian followed his daddy to San Diego, which was likely the only way he’d get a job in the NFL. During his time in San Diego, he was charged with developing 2001 draft pick Drew Brees, who you may know as the future hall-of-famer that last season threw for the most yards in a single season ever. Over the course of four years with Schotty, we saw Brees get benched, the Chargers use the #4 overall pick in the draft to take another quarterback (yes, I know they technically had the #1 pick and traded Eli for Rivers, but for all intents and purposes, they took Philip Rivers), and Brees topped out at 3,576 yards passing in a season.

Brees was respectable his last two years in San Diego, but the team thought so little of his progression, they let him leave as a free agent. As soon as he left Brian Schottenheimer’s control and moved on to New Orleans, he went on to make 5 pro bowls in 6 years, threw for 4,418 with a 96.2 qb rating the VERY NEXT year after leaving Schotty, and just two years later threw for over 5,000 yards and 34 TD’s. Interesting. Meanwhile…

2006-2011 – Yes, meanwhile, Schotty somehow parlayed that poor stretch into the Jets offensive coordinator position. In his first two years with the Jets, Chad Pennington was the quarterback for most of the time. During that period, Chad put together an 83.3 quarterback rating. Not bad, but not great. The VERY NEXT year, in 2008 as a Miami Dolphin (being coached by Tony Sparano, who you may have heard of), Chad Pennington had a qb rating of 97.4 and finished 2nd in the MVP voting. Hmm..

Who did the Jets replace Chad with? Why, Brett Favre of course! Favre was coming off a season in which he racked up 4,155 yards, 28 TD, 15 interceptions, and a qb rating of 95.7. Seems like a slam dunk trade-up right? Well, Favre went from those numbers in 2007 to these with Schottenheimer in 2008: 3,472 yards, 22 td, 22 int, and a qb rating of 81. So he threw for approximately 700 less yards, 6 less td, and 7 more interceptions. Was it because Favre was in decline or washed up? Nope. The following season after leaving Schottenheimer, Favre returned to dominance, throwing for 4,202 yards, 33 td, 7 interceptions and a qb rating of 107.2. Very interesting.

Judging by that track record, there wasn’t a coach in the league I would have less trusted the fortunes of #5 overall pick Mark Sanchez with (that was just part of the Jets whole how NOT to develop a QB strategy), but that’s just what the Jets did. Sanchez has largely struggled through his first three seasons under Schotty, despite flashes of great play and undeniable talent. Entering this season, Sanchez finally got a chance to work with a competent offensive NFL coach: Tony Sparano. With the Dallas Cowboys in 2006, head coach Bill Parcells entrusted Sparano with “raising” young qb Tony Romo. In his first season as the starter, Romo came out of nowhere to make the Pro Bowl and take the first step toward being a top quarterback. With Sparano calling the plays, the Cowboys made the playoffs and had a top 5 offense, despite working in a young, inexperienced quarterback. Sparano clearly has a track record when it comes to helping quarterbacks play to the best of their ability.

In week 1, we saw bits and pieces of what Sparano brings to the table. The offense was organized, they exploited mismatches, and players were put in position to best use their talents. A novel concept, right? Unlike in previous seasons, the offense got off to a fast start and clearly showed they had a good game plan that they trusted. Sanchez played with confidence, looked in command of the offense, and most importantly, was put in a position to succeed, instead of being forced to repeatedly try to jam his square peg into a circle hole. Will the offense always click like it did in week 1? No, of course not. But if history has taught us anything, it’s that Mark Sanchez was due for a major increase in production this season and those of us who believed in him all along may have the last laugh. So to answer all the “experts” and pundits, no, week 1 was not a fluke, and if you were paying attention you’d see it was about to happen. So let’s buckle up and enjoy the ride this year. And we can thank Brian Schottenheimer later,  but not because he did a good job or anything. Because he left.