Mike Donnelly is back with his weekly Stock Watch, make sure to give Mike a follow on Twitter and leave any comments you have for him. Check back later in the day for our ongoing countdown of the top New York Jets on the roster.
It’s Tuesday again, and that means another edition of the Stock Watch. I’ve been seeing, hearing, and reading an awful lot of nonsense lately, and that has put me in a pretty bearish mood when it comes to my buys and sells this week. I won’t be buying players, teams, and coaches in this edition, but rather selling some horrible ideas, predictions, and generally stupid thoughts that I’ve seen pop up over the past few weeks. The people buying this rubbish deserve to lose their fake investments in our fake stock market, while we’ll be cashing in. Let me show you why..
Sell: Idea Jets need another Veteran RB - To be clear, this is probably the only sell on the agenda today that I don’t think is totally idiotic. In fact, there have been some very logical arguments made in favor of it. That being said, it’s been debated ad nauseam lately on Twitter, Jets forums, here (and here, again) and seemingly everywhere else. This is why I think it’s a bad idea that just can’t happen:
1.) There just aren’t enough carries for someone like Cedric Benson here, and since he doesn’t play special teams, his value is roughly zero.
2.) TEBOW (!!!)
3.) Time to let Joe McKnight sink or swim.
In an ideal world, the Jets will run the ball somewhere around 575 times this year as they get back to their ground and pound attack, which boils down to about 36 rushes per game (They ran it 607 in 2009, 534 in 2010, and just 443 last year). Here’s how I expect the breakdown of carries to unfold, with McKnight graduating to LT’s old role, and Tebow here as basically a running back:
- Shonn Greene – 275 carries (17 per game)
- Joe McKnight – 110 carries (7 per game)
- Tim Tebow – 95 carries (6 per game)
- Bilal Powell / Terrance Ganaway – 40 carries combined (2.5 per game)
- John Conner – 25 carries (1.5 per game)
- Sanchez – 25 carries (1.5 per game)
- Misc (Holmes, Kerley, etc) – 10-15 carries (1 per game)
So basically we’d be bringing in a guy like Benson or Grant to take over those 2.5 carries per game from Powell or Ganaway. The team invested draft picks in those guys the past two years, so why not give them a shot and see if one of them can prove themselves and perhaps earn more than the measly scraps left behind? Greene is going to start and get his 15-20 per game as the work horse (and no matter what you think of him, you can’t reasonably say Benson or Grant would be better options). Tebow is going to get his snaps and run 5 or 6 times per game on average, while McKnight provides the only real breakaway threat in the backfield. Those guys are going to play. There is just very simply no room for another running back on the team. It makes no sense to add one.
Sell: Idea that the Bills have surpassed the Jets – Yawn. This one just won’t go away, and likely won’t until some time around mid-November as the Bills are staring down the barrel at another 6-10 season. It’s amazing how many people see Mario Williams sign in Buffalo and assume that means a 4 or 5 win improvement is coming; especially since the Texans so easily replaced him last year, had their best season ever, and let him walk. Weird, huh?
And all the Bills backers out there will have to excuse me if I don’t hold my breath waiting for the Bills to overtake the Jets in the division. Without getting into all the specifics of why Buffalo just isn’t as good of a team as the Jets across the board, let me just say that we’ve been hearing this same nonsense for years now, and it’s getting a little old. First, it was the Dolphins — they were going to be better each year, Henne was a star, their defense was elite, blah, blah, and how’d that turn out? Then last year after a nice start, the Bills Bandwagon was just about full, playoff reservations were being made, and the pundits were lining up to dance on the Jets grave heading into week 9. Gang Green proceeded to kick the everliving crap out of those very Bills on their home turf that week, sending them into a tailspin where they lost 8 out of their last 9, securing them yet another top-10 draft pick. I smell a similar ending in 2012.
Sell: ESPN says Jets can go 5-11, 8-8, or 11-5 – Now that’s some hard-hitting analysis, James Walker and John Clayton! Couldn’t this same garbage be said about any team? It angers me seeing a clown like John Clayton on ESPN acting as if he is some kind of football expert, when in fact he probably only got his job by simply signing up back in the 80’s when ESPN was just starting up and realized they were short a football analyst. Can’t you just picture Clayton walking in, applying to work in the marketing department or something, only to see a sign on a wall at the last second that a “football talker” was needed, then furiously crossing off “marketing” and writing “football” on his application before handing it in? You know damn well that’s what happened. Ok, I’m rambling.
Anyway, here’s why the Jets won’t be going 5-11: They have a capable backup QB, so an injury won’t destroy the season; they have an ELITE defense; they play the Bills twice; they play the Dolphins twice; they play the Colts, Jaguars, and Titans; they play the horrific NFC West; they have the warm-weather Chargers at home in December; they will at least split the 49ers and Texans games at home. That sure looks a lot more like 11 wins than 5 to me.
Sell: Idea Sparano was a bad choice for OC because he was a bad HC – I’ve heard this one a lot since Tony was hired, mostly from pompous Giants or Patriots fans. Because, you know, there has never been a guy who could win Super Bowls as a Coordinator, but suck as a Head Coach, right Kevin Gilbride? Right Dick LeBeau, Steve Spagnuolo, Romeo Crennell, Charlie Weis, Dom Capers… ok, you get the point. Let’s not let facts get in the way of things here. Let’s not mention how when Sparano called plays in Dallas, they had tremendous success (Last week’s Stock Watch was centered on what Sparano brings to NY). Let’s not mention how he turned the Dolphins around from a 1-15 laughingstock to a division winner in one year. Maybe Sparano won’t be the long-term coordinator here, but he’s shown he can run an offense very well before, and more importantly, that he can change the culture of a team, which is something the Jets offense needed after the way 2011 ended.
Sell: Mike Florio says the old Chad Ochocinco is back! - No, really. The dude with the bad hairpiece really tried to push this crap on his website. And he backed it up with such tremendous logic, as well. You see, Chad was only awful last year playing with Tom Brady because he couldn’t Tweet and make a fool of himself. Says Florio, “For the X-and-O-obsessed crowd who summarily dismiss the impact of human factors on the game, think again.” You got that? The X-and-O crowd — the people who watched the games and saw Chad absolutely suck on the field — should have realized that Chad only sucked because Chad couldn’t be Chad. It had nothing to do with the fact he’s washed up or anything. Seriously.
Sell: Rex Ryan is on the “Hot Seat” – I suppose if the Jets go 2-14 or something, Rex could — could — be in jeopardy (although the chances of a 2-14 season are approximately -0.0000003%). But that’s not what some guy named Eric Edholm had to say on Yahoo Sports last week. Nope, according to him, even a playoff appearance just “probably” keeps Rex safe this year. So, just to be clear: if Rex makes the playoffs for the 3rd time in 4 years, has 0 losing seasons in 4 years, and wins 4 (or more) playoff games in those 4 seasons, he still could be fired. Because it’s the Jets. Really, is it that easy to get a job writing on major websites like Yahoo or ESPN? Who is in charge of these things?! I can come up with things that make no sense, with no logic or reasoning behind it, with the best of them!
(For those uninterested in the NBA, I’ll see you next week!)
Sell: Billy King - Holy crap has Billy King done a remarkable job during his tenure with the
New Jersey Brooklyn Nets. I mean it’s clear he took notes from Isiah Thomas’s reign of terror with the Knicks, or as I call it, How to Destroy a Team and Their Fans’ Souls 101. It’s rare you see a GM come in and within two years just take an absolute blowtorch to an organization, making sure to leave no signs of life in his wake, but that’s exactly what Billy King has done! The Nets officially won’t be able to contend for a championship for at least the next 4 years after King’s recent exploits.
First, he traded the #6 overall pick in the draft for soon-to-be-30-year-old Gerald Wallace, a player already on the decline. To save face on that brutal trade, he decided to compound his mistake and give Wallace a $40 million extension. Then, just to make sure the team wouldn’t have enough cap room to pursue Dwight Howard (or anybody else for that matter), he decided to make a trade for Joe Johnson and his vomit-inducing contract (4 years, $89 million remaining), which is probably the worst in the league. Basically, Billy King (likely) kept Deron Williams in Brooklyn which was his main goal, but now instead of competing for a title, they’ll be in a battle to get that #5 seed and get swept out of the 1st round of the playoffs for the next 4 seasons. Well done, Billy!* Again, who hires these people?
(* If the Nets somehow still land Dwight Howard, forget I said anything. Go, Billy!)
Sell: Cleveland taking Dion Waiters #4 overall – I don’t hate Waiters as a player; in fact I think he can be a pretty good 6th man. But didn’t we learn from Marvin Williams that we shouldn’t be drafting college bench players at the top of the draft, especially ones who can’t shoot? I find it hard to believe they couldn’t have traded down and taken Waiters a little later. I just don’t think reaching for role players is the way to build a team, and that they probably should have taken Thomas Robinson in that spot. Oh well, it could have been worse: They could have traded the pick for Gerald Wallace or something.