A Formula For Jets Playoff Success

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Excuse me for not being more excited about previewing the Jets/Bills backup bowl this Sunday, but my mind is already on Wild Card Weekend, where the Jets will either be traveling to Kansas City or Indianapolis. Despite the two teams being very different, the Jets road to the Super Bowl is going to need the following formula regardless of who they play.

1) The Good Mark Sanchez – We have seen the Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde act from Sanchez at times over the past two years. The encouraging thing is that he played very well in last year’s playoffs and has looked great the previous two weeks. This is a quarterback driven league and the Jets are no different than any other team in that, they need their guy playing at a high level if they want make any noise in January. Sanchez has more weapons at his disposal in this year’s playoffs than he did last year, so hopefully he can create big plays and points to support his struggling defense.

2) Shonn Greene – The benefit of still using LaDainian Tomlinson too much down the stretch is that Shonn Greene is especially fresh for the playoffs. He is the type of back built for January, with his hard charging north/south running. Tomlinson is fine as a change of pace back and a 3rd down receiving option but the Jets would be foolish to not have Greene in the 18-20 carry range when the playoffs start.

3) Defensive Answers – The Jets are lacking the personnel to have a great defense but let’s be honest they aren’t completely devoid of talent and they are supposed to have one of the top defensive minds in the league coaching them. Rex Ryan and Mike Pettine are going to have to get creative to manufacture a pass rush and to avoid leaving players like Drew Coleman and Dwight Lowery on an island too frequently. Beyond that, players like Calvin Pace and Jason Taylor simply have to play better.

4) Special Teams Boost – Another way to cover for the Jets defensive shortcomings is to win the special teams battle. Kick returner Brad Smith and punter Steve Weatherford have both had Pro-Bowl quality years and the Jets need them both to keep it up. Nick Folk needs to stay reliable, as he has been the previous few weeks and it wouldn’t hurt if they could rip off a big punt return at some point.

5) Santonio – I love what Braylon Edwards has done for the Jets this year, as he has surprisingly been their most reliable and consistent receiver. Yet, Santonio Holmes is the only game-changing player on the Jets offense. He is the guy who can take a 3 yard slant route and turn it into a 70 yard touchdown or come up with a 7 catch, 165 yard game where an opposing defense just can’t stop him. The Jets need ‘Tone Time to last all the way through January if they want a shot of playing in February.

TOJ NFL Power Rankings: Week 17 – Extended Edition

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Our final installment of the NFL Regular Season Power Rankings…don’t shed a tear on me. Don’t worry, the show doesn’t stop in the playoffs, but here is a very special edition of TOJ NFL Power Rankings…

The Favorite

1. New England Patriots (13-2) – There is no way around it, New England is the team to beat heading into the 2010 playoffs. How many hours are going to be spent pouring over the game tape from when Cleveland beat them way back on November 7th? They are the best but not unbeatable because of a sometimes shaky defense and young players in many key spots.

The Top Contenders

2. New Orleans Saints (11-4) – They know what it takes to win in the playoffs and regardless of likely being a wild-card, their road to the Super Bowl isn’t looking too intimidating. Big win over Atlanta last week in their building, showed they are still the team to beat in the NFC.

3. Baltimore Ravens (11-4) – The team I am most confident can knock off the Patriots in the playoffs. However, they will likely have to get by Peyton Manning first which will be no easy task.

Super Bowl Capable

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-4) – They need to handle business against the Browns or Sunday or risk falling all the way to a #6 seed. It would be a tall task for any wild-card team to come into Heinz Field and get a victory.

5. Atlanta Falcons (12-3) – The road to the Super Bowl still goes through Atlanta in the NFC but they now have it in their head that New Orleans can beat them in their building. Beyond that, the Falcons simply aren’t a dominant team who could be knocked off by any playoff team in their conference.

6. Chicago Bears (11-4) – Clinched a bye thanks to Philadelphia laying an egg last night. If Jay Cutler plays like he did against the Jets, they will be a tough out. It will be interesting to see how they handle the Green Bay game on Sunday, which is meaningless to them.

7. Philadelphia Eagles (10-5) – I know, I know…they looked awful last night but Mike Vick makes them a scary match-up for anybody in the NFC. They will have to beat Chicago at some point, however, who banged them up earlier in the year.

Dangerous

8. Kansas City Chiefs (10-5) – 7-0 at home and they are peeking at the right time. However, it remains to be seen how the key young players on their team handle their first playoff action.

9. Green Bay Packers (9-6) – Chicago would be doing the rest of the conference a favor by doing everything in their power to keep them out of the playoffs.

10. Indianapolis Colts (9-6) – It doesn’t matter how banged up they are, Peyton Manning makes them capable of reaching February.

11. New York Jets (10-5) – If they remember how to play defense and to give Shonn Greene the football, they could roll off a few wins in January especially if Mark Sanchez stays hot. After all the talk, a one and done showing would be a major disappointment.

Just Kill Them Already

12. Tampa Bay Bucs (9-6) – The young Bucs exceeded everybody’s expectations this year and are going to be a serious contender for a long time. However, it is doubtful they will receive enough help to reach the playoffs this time around.

13. New York Giants (9-6) – There is no overcoming the meltdown they had against the Eagles, which looks like it will take them from a potential #2 seed to having a new head coach.

14. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7) – They had every chance in the world to take advantage of the Colts struggles but failed to do so.

If Only They Were in the NFC West

15. Oakland Raiders (7-8) – Not a bad year for the Raiders, who helped the Jets out just a little by not being their usual 4-5 win selves which would have resulted in a top 10 pick for the Patriots in next year’s draft.

16. San Diego Chargers (8-7) – Inexcusable let down in Cincinnati ended their playoff hopes. Oh well, they weren’t going to win a playoff game anyway.

Pulling For You Sunday Night

17. St. Louis Rams (7-8) – Is there anybody who would rather see the pitiful Seahawks in the playoffs than the young, surprising Rams led by Sam Bradford and Steven Jackson?

A Moment to Laugh

18. Washington Redskins (6-9) – For the way they handled the Albert Haynesworth and Donovan McNabb situation, along with thinking they could be a playoff team by starting Joey Galloway at receiver.

19. Miami Dolphins (7-8) – For thinking Chad Henne was a franchise quarterback and to everybody (I am looking you Bill Williamson) who argued they’d rather have him than Mark Sanchez.

20. Minnesota Vikings (6-9) – To how much better they would have been starting Joe Webb all along.

21. Dallas Cowboys (5-10) – To people like me who thought they were a Super Bowl contender.

22. Detroit Lions (5-10) – To them throwing the ball on third down when the Jets had no timeouts with Drew Stanton way back in November.

Deserve Some Respect

23. Buffalo Bills (4-11) – They have fought hard every week and are a handful of plays away from being a 7 win team despite lacking talent on both sides of the ball.

24. Cleveland Browns (5-10) – Fought hard all year but then dropped some winnable games late in the season that will likely cost Eric Mangini his job.

Deserve No Respect

25. Tennessee Titans (6-9) – Completely meltdown and quit in the second  half of the year…kind of like Vince Young when he gets taken out of games.

26. Houston Texans (5-10) – Kind of funny to think about what everyone was saying about them after they beat the Colts in week one.

Just Awful

27. Seattle Seahawks (6-9) – If you haven’t been able to tell yet this year, it absolutely disgusts me that Seattle can still make the playoffs. Over the last 9 games, Seattle has lost by 30, 34, 15, 18, 19, 16, and 23 and beaten the Cardinals and Panthers aka a pair of college teams. Just disgusting that we have to watch them on Sunday night.

28. Cincinnati Bengals (4-11) – It would have been real interesting to watch how their season would have went without T.O. and Ochocinco.

29. Denver Broncos (4-11) – At least they have Tebow to look forward to next year.

30. San Francisco 49ers (5-10) – Mike Singletary was always entertaining.

31. Arizona Cardinals (5-10) – Funny to see Kerry Rhodes run his mouth on Twitter about the Jets as he is a key part of one of the NFL’s worst defenses.

32. Carolina Panthers (2-13) – Should be in last place for a long, long time in the NFC South.

Grading Out Jets/Bears

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Quarterback (A) – If you have seen every snap Mark Sanchez has taken in the NFL, you know how encouraging yesterday’s performance was. He looked like the quarterback who nearly took them to the Super Bowl last year and if he can continue his confident, poised play, the Jets will be competitive against any team they face in January.

Running Back (B+) – Another player who looks ready for the playoffs is Shonn Greene, who needs to be given the reigns as the Jets lead back immediately. It is inexcusable how little action he received in the fourth quarter. LaDainian Tomlinson still has value to the offense, particularly as a pass catcher but Greene should be getting the bulk of carries from now on.

Wide Receivers (B+) – Another very good game from Braylon Edwards, who continues to have a great season. Santonio Holmes was productive but lost a fumble. Jerricho Cotchery is slowly being phased out of the offense. Brad Smith looked good in the Wildcat and threw a nice ball down the sideline.

Tight Ends (B+) – Good to see Dustin Keller back involved in the offense but he has to make that catch in the end-zone.

Defensive Line (D) – The lack of pass rush was more acceptable when they were doing a better job stopping the run. Shaun Ellis was banged up and will likely rest next week for the playoffs.

Linebackers (D) – Another missing in action performance from both Jason Taylor and Calvin Pace, who has been a major disappointment this season. Bart Scott didn’t too much either, which has happened all too often since he joined the team. Bryan Thomas had his team leading 6th sack.

Secondary (D) – This would be a F if it wasn’t for Darrelle Revis and Dwight Lowery’s pick six. However, the blueprint to beating the Jets remains to throw away from Revis and to pick on players like Lowery, Drew Coleman, and even Antonio Cromartie.

Special Teams (C) – Nick Folk seems to be back on track and Steve Weatherford has been terrific all year. I hated the fake punt call, it was terrible timing and worse execution.

Coaching (C) – Rex Ryan seems to have a problem finding a good “Plan B” after the offense figures out what the Jets defense is doing. Brian Schottenheimer called a strong game for the second week in a row but must use Shonn Greene more.

Highlights From Yesterday

Initial Reaction: Jets Lose But Make Playoffs, Where Is The D?

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When you score 34 points, you are supposed to be able to win football games. Unfortunately the Jets didn’t get the memo today, as their defense no showed in Chicago en route to a 38-34 loss, in what was an exciting, back and forth game.

The positives were basically limited to the offensive side of the football. Mark Sanchez played a terrific game, going 24/37 for 269 yards with a TD and INT on a desperation final pass. I don’t think there should be any concern about his shoulder moving forward and it sounds like he won’t playing a full game or at all next week to give him extra rest just in case.

Shonn Greene made a strong case to be the Jets number one back when the playoffs start. There is no excuse for LaDainian Tomlinson to receive more carries than him. Greene had 70 yards on 12 carries, while Tomlinson only had 28 yards on 13 carries.

The Jets receiving box score looked how we anticipated it would in the pre-season. Dustin Keller had 7 receptions for 79 yards, although he had a bad drop in the end-zone. Braylon Edwards had 6 receptions for 78 yards. Santonio Holmes had 4 receptions for 69 yards and a touchdown.

The Jets defense on the other hand continued to demonstrate the problems they have had all season. No pass rush. No consistent coverage outside of Darrelle Revis. Their defense has been a major let down throughout the 2010 season and it will likely be their ultimate downfall at some point in the postseason, which is ironic considering all the concerns about Sanchez and the offense heading into the year.

Also for the record, it was a bonehead decision to fake a punt up 31-24 in the 3rd quarter at your own 40 yard line. It helped shift the momentum of the game back towards the Bears.

For now, it is looking like the Jets will rest many starters in a week 17 snooze fest against the Buffalo Bills before gearing up for a wild card trip to face the Kansas City Chiefs.

Jets vs. Bears: 12 Pack Of Predictions

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Your Christmas present? A 12 pack from TOJ on the Jets-Bears…

1. The Jets defense has struggled getting after the quarterback throughout the season. However, Sunday will be a day for Rex Ryan to show off his ability to design blitzes that constantly harass the quarterback. Jay Cutler will be sacked at least 3 times and one of those will be a strip sack.

2. On the topic Cutler…he won’t shy away from attacking Darrelle Revis, which is going to result in Revis pulling in his first interception of the season.

3. Greg Olsen and Devin Hester are going to have big days working against the Jets secondary. The Jets still haven’t shown an ability to stop the tight end and Hester’s quickness will be problematic if he gets matched up with any of the Jets nickel or dime backs.

4. LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene will combine for at least 35 carries. A Jets running back hasn’t scored a touchdown since they played Denver in week 6 but the streak will end on Sunday.

5. After his big game last week, the Bears will shift more attention to Braylon Edwards opening things up for Santonio Holmes to have a 100 yard performance.

6. Nick Folk is going to keep quietly building momentum heading towards the playoffs by hitting all of his field goal attempts.

7. After being shut out last week, Jerricho Cotchery will have a couple of receptions on Sunday. Dustin Keller will also have one of his better games in recent weeks, pulling in over 50 yards receiving.

8. Mark Sanchez will have another efficient game, completing at least 60 percent of his passes and throwing for just over 200 yards. However, I do think will turn the ball over at least once.

9. Devin Hester will find a way to have at least one big return.

10. Brad Smith will create a big play on offense for the first time since the Cincinnati game.

11. Matt Forte will rush for less than 60 yards against the Jets defense.

12. The Jets are going to relieve all of the unnecessary stress in week 17 by beating the Bears 20-13. I like the way they match-up with them and think it will be a big day for the defense, after a so so effort against the Steelers.