Jets vs. Colts: AFC Championship Game Prediction


First a few updates:

1. Watch the new episode of TOJ TV at the top and bottom of the article.

2. Kerry Rhodes and Shaun Ellis both practiced today and will be in the starting line-ups on Sunday.

3. has good coverage of the pep rally in Times Square yesterday, with video and photos from the event.

Jets vs. Colts: AFC Championship Game Prediction

I think the entire “NFL is a passing league and you win by throwing the ball” argument is complete BS. There is a reason Ben Rothlisberger has won more Super Bowls than Peyton Manning and Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson, and Eli Manning have won the same amount. Look at the past ten 10 Super Bowl Champs: The Patriots won three when they were built on a strong defense and their running game, instead of their passing game. Do you remember the Patriots receiving core during their Super Bowl victories? Exactly. When they became a team built around a prolific passing offense, they  lost in the Super Bowl to a Giants team with a big time defense and a big time running game. The Ravens, Bucs, Steelers, and Giants all won because of their defense and running game, not because of their ability to throw the ball. Even when the Rams were the Greatest Show On Turf, they ran the ball well with Marshall Faulk.

Yes, I know the Colts did a win Super Bowl in 2006. They deserve credit, yet they took advantage of a weak AFC Playoff field (including a below average 10-6 Jets team and a weak 9-7 Chiefs team), an overachieving New England team, and a choke artist San Diego team and beat a not so memorable Chicago team in the Super Bowl. However, do you remember how poorly Peyton Manning played in those first two playoff games? He threw 5 INT’s and 1 TD and continued his crappy play into the first half of the AFC Championship Game before locking into a scary zone, playing an awesome second half and leading the Colts pass the Patriots. How did the Colts win the Super Bowl that year? They won because their defense and running game stepped up. They won because they allowed a combined 14 points in their first two playoff games and they had success running the football. They won in the Super Bowl because their top two backs combined for 190 yards.

This Colts team is carried by one thing: the excellence of Peyton Manning. Yes, they have great defensive ends and fast linebackers but overall their defense is only average (18th overall in total defense, 24th in rushing defense, and 14th in pass defense). They have the worst rushing game in the NFL. Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark are great players but Wayne is going to meet his match this weekend and Clark…well I hope Rex Ryan has something schemed up for Clark. The Colts are 15-0 this year when they play all their starters the full game, which is impressive as hell. Yet, this isn’t the 2007 Patriots who blew out everyone in every game (and remember how their season ended when they faced a team who could hit them in the mouth on both sides of the ball), this is a team who won 8 games that were decided by one possession or less, which is why you are crazy if you took the 7.5 points they are favored this week.

I think their magic in close games runs out this week. I think the team who runs the football and plays defense is going to the Super Bowl. I think there is something going on with this Jets team. The football gods are smiling on the smash mouth team who plays old school football and not the team who spit in the face of history by pulling their starters the final two weeks but then decided to throw a bunch of screen passes to make sure their top two receivers finished with 100 catches each. The Colts created a monster when they pulled their starters in week 16 and this week that monster is going into their building and killing their season.

Jets – 23 Colts – 20


Author: Joe Caporoso

Joe Caporoso is the Owner and EIC of Turn On The Jets. His writing has been featured in the New York Times, Huffington Post, MMQB and AdWeek. Caporoso played football his entire life, including four years at Muhlenberg as a wide receiver, where he was arguably the slowest receiver to ever start in school history. He is the VP of Social Media at Whistle Sports

  • dmd13

    This is more appropriate here and hope no one misses it so im re-posting…

    I am going to give the Jets a little respect that they deserve and say they have a shot of winning this game after watching the Chargers game and thinking the Jets were going to get abused.

    We got 2 possibilities for the game:
    Scenario 1: Jets do weather the storm in first half with a 10-3 lead like they have been doing. Second half Jets control the game and just burn the clock, get one field goal 13-3. 4th quarter 6 minutes left peyton rips through the defense for 7. 13-10. Jets go 3 and out on ensuing kickoff, give the ball to Peyton for the 2 minute drill. He drives down to the 20, sets up a chip shot for Stover. STOINK!! Sanchez does his best Pele impression REX remains a slob.

    Scenario 2: Colt’s go up by 10 early Jets begin to panic and have to go to Sanchez for help. This is where it will get ugly Sanchez puts up 3 picks and fumbles twice as Freeney makes him his senorita. Peyton has the luxury of a short field all game and gives the ol “double middle finger up your ass” to anyone who said the Jets deserve to be on the same field as the Colts. 24-7 Colts. Sanchez goes back to putting up Jemarcus Russell like numbers and opens his own Mexican chain restaurant. “In 2008, Russell completed 198 of 368 passes for 2,423 yards and 13 TDs (with 8 INTs). This season, Sanchez went 196-for-364 for 2,444 yards, 12 TDs and 20 INTs. Their completion percentages were identical (ahhh!): both at 53.8 percent. Russell started 15 games at age 23 in 2008; Sanchez started 15 games at age 23 in 2009. The biggest difference is in interceptions, where Sanchez was significantly worse, throwing 20 interceptions to Russell’s eight.” (ESPN).

    My prediction, primarily because I am hater is scenario #2. But you all should be happy I am picking the Colts because the football God’s have a personal vendetta against me for turning my back on the little brother of NY football again. If you guys really really want the Jets to win I will be accepting donations to , where I will use all the money to bet against the Jets AND the Jets are a lock to get in the Superbowl.


  • Joe Caporoso

    As i responded in the other post, if you would rather have JaMarcus than Sanchez…you are crazier than I thought.

    and yes i hope you get some money to bet against the Jets, because the more you hate, the better they play haha

  • The Iron Marshal

    Jets knock the snot out of dem ponies… the way they were on their way to doing back in week 16 before Caldwell saw the writing on the wall and pulled his starters to save them from the pounding.

    Yeah, baby, you read right – in all this blasted noise about how the Colts gave the game away, no one has mentioned what the likely result would have been in if their starters would have stayed in the game – they would have been pounded, worn down, run over, rode hard and put away WET just like the Bengals, the Bengals and the Chargers.

    Caldwell knows, that’s why he’s so quiet and under strain. The doubt is beginning to affect his, err… “performance”.

    Rex knows this too, which is why he’s loose as a goose – he knows that Jimmy-boy can’t run’n’hide his players this time.

    This Jets team is relentless, indomitable, never quitting, and grows stronger as the game goes on, simultaneously as their opponents grow weaker, more timid, less able to take on the Bowling Greene head-on.

    Jets 31, Dolts 21

    Ya hoid id heah foihst!!!!

    T I M

  • KERV

    I was waiting for a little love after predicting the Jets would beat the Chargers. I just hope after we beat the Colts I finally get the shout out I was hopeing after the Chargers game.

  • KERV

    I didn’t get any shout out after I say that we would beat the CHargers. Well I hope I get it after we win Sunday.

  • Aaron

    I think the Jets will play pretty well, but come up short 23-14.

  • Joe Caporoso

    you deserve credit KERV for your pick in the SD game and I hope you are right again this week…24-14 would be some statement win.

  • William Tanasovich

    talkin all that about the colts.

    30-17 final

    Super Bowl here we come